400 AGXX40 KNHC 070839 AAA MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 339 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019 Updated SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS section Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered over the western Atlantic and NE Gulf will maintain southerly return flow over the basin through this afternoon. A cold front will reach to just inland the Texas coast this afternoon, then extend from southwestern Louisiana to northeastern Mexico this evening, from near Destin, Florida to 26N90W to 24N96W and stationary to near 21N97W early Fri, and weaken as it reaches from near Tampa, Florida to 26N90W and stationary to 24N96W and to 19N96W by Fri evening. The front will weaken further becoming diffuse by late Sat night. A tight pressure gradient between the front and strong high pressure that will build across the region in its wake will bring the possibility for gale force northwest to north winds across the offshore of Mexico in the W central and SW Gulf Fri afternoon into early Sat. Strong to near gale force winds, with possible occasional gusts to gale force will be possible elsewhere over the western Gulf waters tonight into early Fri along with seas peaking to 12 or 13 ft. High pressure that will shift eastward to the central Atlantic next week will again allow for return flow to return to most of the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... High pressure of 1023 mb centered to the east of northeastern Florida near 30.5N76W will be replaced by stronger high pressure that will build east-southeast across the western Atlantic Fri through late Sun night, with the expected tightening gradient between it and low pressure over Colombia and the far southwestern Caribbean leading to strong trades across the S central Caribbean pulsing to gale force off of Colombia each night through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds will expand in coverage Fri through early Mon to include the Windward Passage and the waters in the lee of Cuba. The winds across the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba are forecast to diminish during Mon afternoon, but may still be in the fresh to strong range in the Windward Passage. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...Updated ...Potential for Hazardous Winds and Seas this weekend for the majority of the forecast waters... A cold front is analyzed from near 23N65W to 22N67W and continues as a stationary front to the coast of the Dominican Republic near 19N69W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over the waters to the southeast of the front. This activity is being aided by a mid/upper level trough that is approaching that part of the area. In addition, a surface trough extends from 22N64W to across the U.S. Virgin Islands and to the Caribbean Sea at 16N66W. This activity is expected to continue through Fri, but diminish in coverage. The cold front will move to the east of the forecast waters this morning, while the stationary portion weakens through Fri. The next cold front will move over the far northwestern waters Fri night, then reach from near 31N67W to 29N76W and become stationary to near Cape Canaveral by early on Sat. Very strong high pressure, resembling that which is most often seen in the spring time, will build across the western Atlantic behind this front. The ensuing tight pressure gradient is forecast by the models to bring strong northeast to east winds along with building seas, likely to peak to around 12 ft, over the waters to the north and northeast of the Bahamas on Sat and Sat night. Winds and seas north through northeast of the Bahamas will begin to slowly subside beginning on Sun afternoon as the front dissipates as depicted by the models. Seas will continue to further subside on Mon as the high pressure weakens while it shifts eastward to the central Atlantic waters. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Fri into Fri night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Fri into Fri night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning within 90 nm of coast of Colombia till 12Z this morning and again tonight into early on Fri. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE within 90 nm of coast of Colombia each night from Fri through Mon. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.