000 AGXX40 KNHC 010759 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 259 AM EST Fri Feb 1 2019 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A trough extending near the coast of Texas from weak low pressure just inland southern Texas will change little through tonight, then move inland by Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds as were noted in an overnight Ascat pass and in the latest buoy reports are present over the waters from 24N to 29N between 90W and 95W, and from just north of the Yucatan Peninsula to 29N between 86W and 90W as a result from the tight pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure that extends SSW across the Gulf from the Mid-Atlantic coast. The combination of the aforementioned trough and an upper-level disturbance moving across the NW Gulf will continue to lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms moving from W to E over the the N Central Gulf waters through tonight, and over a part of the NE Gulf on Sat. The fresh to strong east to southeast winds will diminish to mainly fresh winds late tonight or early on Sat once the trough moves inland. Otherwise, high pressure will extend from the Mid-Atlantic coast south-southwestward to across the Gulf through early next week, and will be the main feature to influence the weather regime in the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Fresh to strong trades in the S central Caribbean will pulse to near gale at night near the Coast of Colombia during the period. Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail through the next several days. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A weak trough extending from the western Bahamas to southern Florida will slowly move northward through this evening. A coastal trough along the northeastern Florida coast will remain in place through early Sat before it shifts east- northeastward across the northwestern waters into Sun. A mid to upper-level disturbance will move across those waters on Sun, and act upon the trough to develop a weak low near 31N78W late on Sun. A trough will extend from the low south-southeastward to near 28N75W. The low and trough are expected to be blocked on either side by high pressure ridging through Mon night until the next mid to upper-level trough swings across the northwest waters kicking the low and trough eastward. Presently, there are model differences with respect to the forecast position of the low and on exact timing of when it will be impacted by the upcoming mid to upper-level trough that will emerge from the Gulf of Mexico. Nevertheless, scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected to develop over the northwestern waters on Sat, then begin to shift eastward on Sun and through Tue. Meanwhile, an old frontal boundary stretching from near 28N65W to eastern Cuba will gradually become diffuse as it slowly moves northwestward across the far western waters through Sat afternoon. Otherwise, rather weak high pressure will remain across the area. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.