000 AGXX40 KNHC 010730 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 230 AM EST Tue Jan 1 2019 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Platform observations from the north central Gulf indicate a frontal boundary reaching from from SE Louisiana to Veracruz Mexico is starting to stall and turn to the northwest as a warm front. Dense fog advisories are in effect near the coast along and east of the front from Vermilion Bay Louisiana to Choctawhatchee Bay Florida, where there is still enough warm, moist southerly flow over cooler shelf waters. Areas of fog may also be in place over the open waters in the north central and northeast Gulf, although the airmass is somewhat drier than yesterday and dew points are a little lower. West of the front over the northwest Gulf, offshore platforms are reporting unrestricted visibility with broken to overcast low cloud. SE winds east of the front are generally gentle to moderate, with fresh winds noted in scatterometer data off the Yucatan peninsula. Light northerly flow is evident west of the front. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, lower off the Texas coast. The front will continue to move toward the coast a warm front through today then stall. A more vigorous upper level feature currently moving into the southern Rockies will pivot into the Southern Plains Wed into Thu. This will induce the front to move eastward again as a cold front Wed night, reaching from southeast Louisiana to Laguna Verde Mexico Thu, from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula Fri, and finally southeast of the area Sat. Thunderstorms will accompany the front over the northern Gulf late Thu to late Fri. Strong winds and building seas will follow the front. The strongest winds will be across the western Gulf waters late Thu, increasing to near gale and even briefly to minimal gale force along the Mexican coast near Veracruz Mexico late Fri. A trough will develop over the western Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon through Fri, move W across the SW gulf during the overnight hours and lose identity by late each morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Recent scatterometer data again confirmed gale force winds persisting off the central coast of Colombia, between Barranquilla and Cartagena. This is part of a multi-day gale event, brought on by strong high pressure north of the area and relatively deep troughing along the Pacific coast of Colombia. Overnight drainage flow off the higher terrain along the Caribbean coast is enhancing the gales mainly overnight into the early morning. However, the gradient alone is currently strong enough to support winds to gale force event through the daytime hours. The long fetch and duration of the winds is allowing seas to build to 12 to 17 ft in the area of gale force winds. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds persist across most of the Caribbean south of 18N, to include the Gulf of Honduras. East swell to 8 ft is also propagating into the waters east of the Windward Islands. Pulses of fresh to strong NE winds with nearly 8 ft are reaching the northern approaches to the Windward Passage as well, between Haiti and Cuba. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in the areas of strong winds. Relatively dry conditions persist overall, and no significant convection is observed anywhere across the basin. However, radar mosaics and land based observations across the Windward and Leeward Islands show isolated fast moving showers in the trade wind flow. For the forecast, the strong to near gale force trades will prevail across the central Caribbean through Sat, increasing to gale force along the NW coast of Colombia each night and continuing through the middle of each morning before diminishing. Locally strong nocturnal trades are forecast across the western Gulf of Honduras through Tue night. Locally strong winds are forecast across the Windward Passage through Wed night. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel early Fri, before stalling from Central Cuba to northern Belize on Fri night. Moderate to fresh trades expected elsewhere through Sat. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A cold front is moving southward across the waters east of 70W. This has temporarily displaced the subtropical ridge over the region, with the dominant high pressure currently reforming north of the area behind the front. A recent scatterometer pass indicated this pattern is maintaining a tight enough pressure gradient to support fresh to strong trade winds north of Haiti toward the approaches to the Windward Passage. Buoy and recent altimeter satellite passes indicated seas are generally 3 to 5 ft north of 22N and at least 6 to 8 ft south of 22N. For the forecast, a stronger cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast late Fri accompanied by a strong wind shift to the N of 29N. This strong front will reach from Bermuda to the Central Bahamas on Sat night. Strong to near gale force winds will accompany the front north of 29N into Sat. Fresh to strong trades will continue along the north coast of Hispaniola and the Atlantic approaches to the Windward Passage. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight into Wed night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed night into Thu. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... Gale Warning Tue night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.