000 AGXX40 KNHC 211831 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 131 PM EST Wed Nov 21 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A nearly stationary front stretches from near Tampa Florida to SE of Brownsville near 24N95W to the southern Bay of Campeche near 18N96W. Low pres developing along the front Thu will generate strong winds within 120 nm of the Texas coast. Winds and seas will subside Thu night as the low dissipates. The next low pressure system will track along the northern Gulf Coast Fri through Sat. The low will generate strong winds over the NE Gulf Fri night and Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Fresh to occasionally strong winds will continue along the coast of Colombia through Thu. Trade winds are expected to subside on Fri and remain light to moderate through Sun. Large long period NE swell over the Atlantic will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through tonight. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A frontal boundary extending from S Florida to the northern Bahamas to 31N66W will reach the central Bahamas later today, then stall Thu through Fri night. Low pressure will form along the front near the northern Bahamas on Fri, then intensify as it tracks NE off the SE coast of the United States Fri night through Sat night. Seas outside the Bahamas will build to between 10 and 16 ft Fri through Sat night. The latest forecast update leans toward the GFS solution, which appears to capture the upstream short wave which will help spawn the developing low. A strong upward trend in both the SREF and GWES 34 kt wind probabilities for this time frame support this forecast scenario. The latest GFS solution generates gale force winds on the N side of the low Fri and Fri night. The latest NAM run has come into agreement with the GFS. The low will track NE and drag a cold front behind it over the northern Bahamas. The front will stall around 27N as the parent low tracks NE and deepens. The area of associated winds and seas will affect the waters N of 27N Sat through Sun night. The next cold front will emerge off the Florida coast on Mon. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... Gale Warning Fri. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri into Fri night. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Gale Warning Thu night into Fri. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri into Sat. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.