000 AGXX40 KNHC 191915 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 215 PM EST Mon Nov 19 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from southwestern Louisiana to a 1016 mb low at 27N96W. A cold front extends from the low to inland Mexico at 23N98W. The cold front will become stationary this evening. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast late tonight and merge with the stationary front early on Tue as it then extends from the near Panama City to weak low pressure of 1018 mb near 27N92W, and from the low to near Veracruz. The cold will reach from near Cross City, Florida to near 26N90W and to Tampico by Tue evening. Fresh to strong north winds are forecast west of this front across the W central Gulf and western Bay of Campeche through late Tue night, then in the far southwestern Gulf through early Wed afternoon. The western portion of the front will stall and then drift northwestward over the far western Gulf through late Wed night. The eastern portion of the front will become stationary across the southeastern Gulf by Thu. Low pressure is expected to develop offshore the Texas coast Thu and track eastward across the northern Gulf through Sat accompanied by fresh to strong winds. Generally weak high pressure will build over the area in its wake. A weak upper-level disturbance moving across eastern Texas is acting on a very unstable environment. This scenario will maintain scattered shower and thunderstorm activity over much of the northwestern Gulf through Tue morning as the disturbance tracks off to the east. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A surface trough over the Gulf of Honduras will continue to support scattered showers and tstms through tonight including portions of Belize. Strong high pressure north of the region will continue to support fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia through Tue morning. Winds will briefly diminish as a front passes to the north of the area. The winds will return again Tue night and continue through Wed night as a new ridge builds north of the area. Large long period NE swell over the Atlantic will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through Wed afternoon. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A stationary front extends from near 30N65W to a 1016 mb low near 30N65W southwestward to a 1016 mb low near 27N71W and continues southwestward to the SE Bahamas near 22N75W. This front will dissipate overnight tonight. The low will meander over the region and then merge with a cold front that will reach from near 31N69W to 28N77W Tue evening and from near 28N65W to 25N77W Wed evening. A strong cold front will move southward over the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas Thu through Fri night and become stationary through Sat night. Global models depict that low pressure will form along the front beginning on Fri, and quickly track north-northeast as the boundary lifts back to the north as a warm front through Sat night. The low appears that it will lose its identity on Sat. The main thing of concern to mariners will be that the tight pressure gradient between the front and strong high pressure that will build southward behind it will act to significantly increase the northeast to east winds to mainly the strong range across just about all of the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas. In addition, wave model guidance is suggesting that seas over these will significantly build to the range of 9 to 14 ft from Fri through Sat night. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.