000 AGXX40 KNHC 110812 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 312 AM EST Sun Nov 11 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from Naples Florida to 24N96W to 18N94W. Strong easterly winds are noted in scatterometer and buoy data north of the front and north of 24N. Earlier altimeter data showed seas to 13 ft off the Mexican coast from Tampico to Veracruz, although seas are subsiding. The front will lift north and weaken as it lifts northward today ahead of a stronger cold front moving off the Texas coast by late Mon. Strong winds and building seas will follow the front, reaching gale force over the NW Gulf by late Mon. Strong gales will follow the front over the western Gulf as it reaches from Panama City Florida to Coatzacoalcos Mexico early Tue, with brief storm conditions possible off Veracruz. Winds and seas will gradually diminish Wed into Thu as the front sweeps southeast of the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong NE winds pulsing through the Windward Passage. This is indicative of a relatively tighter pressure gradient between building high pressure off the U.S. east coast and troughing over the eastern Caribbean related to a sharp upper trough reaching from the central Atlantic to Puerto Rico. This pattern will persist through tonight, with areas of fresh strong winds also pulsing off the central coast of Colombia, near Cabo Beata on the southern coast of Hispaniola, and through the Gulf of Guacanayabo in southeast Cuba. Meanwhile thunderstorms and strong winds are noted on the northern portion of a tropical wave analyzed well east of the area in the tropical north Atlantic along 52W, and this is expected reach the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands by tonight. The tropical wave will drift through the eastern Caribbean by mid week. Fresh to strong trade winds and 8 to 10 ft seas with easterly swell will follow over the tropical north Atlantic region. As the tropical wave shift east, a cold front will move into the southwest north Atlantic area to the north, temporarily weakening the subtropical ridge and allowing winds across the basin to diminish through mid week across the eastern and central Caribbean. The strong cold front will also be moving across the Gulf of Mexico, and bring fresh to strong N winds and seas to 12 ft into the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean Wed through Thu. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Moderate to fresh northerly winds are observed north of a cold front extending from 31N71W to West Palm Beach Florida. Seas to 8 ft in northerly swell are also apparent, at least over waters north of 30N. Subsidence associated with a sharp upper trough is maintaining generally fair weather from Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos, but upper divergence on the eastern side of the upper trough is supporting a few showers and thunderstorms across the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands. Buoy and altimeter satellite data show generally 4 to 6 ft seas over open waters. The front will stall and weaken over the northern Bahamas through today. The front will lift north and becoming diffuse Mon ahead of a stronger front moving off the northeast Florida coast late Tue. The second front will reach from 31N73W to western Cuba Wed when a reinforcing push of cold air will bring strong northerly winds and building seas to the waters north of 27N by late Wed. As this happens, troughing on the northern end of a tropical wave will move into the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands Mon and Tue, coming into phase with favorable conditions aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough, thus enhancing convection, lowering surface pressure and allowing surface winds to increase. The resultant developing low pressure will move N-NW, reaching north of Puerto Rico Wed, before interacting with the stalling front Thu well to the northeast of the southern Bahamas. Strong to near- gale force winds are possible with this low, and it currently has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development by mid week before interacting with the stalling front to its northwest. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... Gale Warning late Mon. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Mon night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night into Tue. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night into Tue night. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue night into Wed. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue into Tue night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.