000 AGXX40 KNHC 100559 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1259 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front reaches from near Panama City Florida to just north of Tampico, Mexico. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated a large area of winds reaching gale force over the northwest Gulf, mainly off the coast of the northeastern Mexican state of Tamaulipas, but also around 60 nm south of the Sabine Pass. The front will move south then stall later today from near Fort Myers Florida to 22N94W to near Puerto Veracruz Mexico, then weaken as it lifts northward through Sun ahead of another front expected to move into the northwest Gulf by Mon. The main weather issue concerns the potential for strong gales or even storm force winds behind this next front. This is due to a combination of strong cold air advection over still relatively warm Gulf waters in the western Gulf, along with fairly strong high pressure building over Mexico in the wake of the front increasing the pressure gradient. As a result, winds to gale force will follow this stronger front over the western Gulf as it reaches from near Pensacola Florida to Tampico Mexico by late Mon. Strong gales are likely over the southwest Gulf Tue, possibly reaching storm force off Veracruz, as the second front reaches from near Tampa Florida to Coatzacoalcos Mexico. Various global models have been indicating winds to near storm force over the previous several runs, with the latest GFS indicating minimal storm off Veracruz by early Tue. Winds and seas will diminish Wed as the front sweeps southeast of the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A weak ridge north of the area will maintain gentle to moderate trade winds across the region through much of today. Winds will increase east of the Leeward Islands later today into Sun as the ridge builds east. Winds and seas increase slightly across the rest of the region early next week as a high pressure builds north of the Bahamas. Looking ahead, a cold front will bring fresh to strong N winds and seas to 9 ft will into the Yucatan Channel by mid week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A weak cold front will move off northeast Florida early this morning then become diffuse over the Bahamas through Mon. Another cold front will move off northeast Florida by Tue, and reach from Bermuda to western Cuba by late Wed. Meanwhile a trough or weak low pressure area may form north of the Leeward Islands early next week and move to the north of Puerto Rico by mid week ahead of the front. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... Gale Warning early today into today. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... Gale Warning early today into today. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning early today into today. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night into Tue. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue into Tue night. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue night. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue into Tue night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.