000 AGXX40 KNHC 070700 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EST Wed Nov 7 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging extending from the Atlantic to the central Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over the basin through Thu night. A strong cold front will reach the Texas coastal waters Fri morning, and move across the NW Gulf through Fri afternoon. The front will reach from near Apalachicola to near 26N90W and to inland northeastern Mexico Fri evening, from near Sarasota, Florida to 25N90W and to near Veracruz early Sat, then become stationary from near Fort Myers to near 24N90W to the Bay of Campeche by Sat evening. Strong winds and building seas are expected behind this front. NW to N winds are possible to reach minimal gale force late Fri night through Sat night over the far western Gulf S of 26N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to precede the front. Beyond this forecast going into early next week, the models are advertising a much stronger cold front to sweep across the area followed by an expansive area of strong high pressure. Stay tuned to future forecasts that will detail this event, along with possible marine warnings associated with it. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... High pressure over the central Atlantic will weaken as it shifts southeastward during the next few days. As a result, generally light to moderate trades are expected over the area during the next several days. A surface trough just to the east of the Windward Islands will produce showers and thunderstorms, some possibly with gusty winds, over much of the tropical N Atlantic waters through the rest of the week. An upper trough stretches from an upper-level low located over the Atlantic at 26N63W, southwestward across the eastern side of the Dominican Republic to over Panama. A strong SW to NE oriented jet stream branch exists along side the eastern periphery of the trough. The combination of jet stream dynamics acting on a very moist and unstable atmosphere, and while at the same time a tropical wave moves through the eastern Caribbean, expect for more scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over the northeastern Caribbean waters through early Thu, at which the upper trough and low are forecast to weaken. NE long-period swell over the tropical Atlantic waters will be replaced by a new set of NE swell Fri night through Sun. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... High pressure ridge extending from Bermuda to central Florida will retreat eastward during the next few days in response to cold fronts that will move off the United States eastern seaboard. The first cold front is expected to be rather weak as it just stays to the northwest of the area before moving back north as a warm by late Wed. The second cold front is expected to quickly move across the Gulf of Mexico and off the east coast late Fri night. It will then move across the northwestern waters through Sat before approaching Bermuda and extend to near 31N72W and stationary to near Port Canaveral by late Sat night. Strong continental high pressure in the wake of the front will tighten the gradient over the northwest waters Sat leading to fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas there. These conditions will spread eastward to the north-central waters through Sun as the western portion of the front begins to lift some to the north. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will continue over the remainder of the forecast waters through Sun night. NE long period swell over the eastern waters will subside through Thu. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night into Sat. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat into Sat night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.