000 AGXX40 KNHC 071802 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 PM EDT Sun Oct 7 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation is centered just off the coast of Louisiana near 28N91W. Upper level divergence is enhancing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection over the SE Gulf. Tropical Storm Michael near 19.2N 86.9W 1004 mb at 11 AM EDT moving N at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Fourteen will move near 20.0N 86.5W this evening, move to 21.5N 86.5W Mon morning, 23.2N 86.8W Mon evening, 24.9N 87.2W Tue morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 28.7N 86.5W Wed morning. Fourteen will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland to near 33.0N 82.5W early Thu. Seas to 25 ft are currently forecast near the center of Michael with 12 ft seas extending up to 180 nm from the center as it crosses the central Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Tropical Storm Michael near 19.2N 86.9W 1004 mb at 11 AM EDT moving N at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Fourteen will move near 20.0N 86.5W this evening, move to 21.5N 86.5W Mon morning, 23.2N 86.8W Mon evening, 24.9N 87.2W Tue morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 28.7N 86.5W Wed morning. Fourteen will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland to near 33.0N 82.5W early Thu. A broad ridge over the remainder of the basin is suppressing convection away from the storm. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... An upper-level low is centered E of the Bahamas is near 25N69W. Divergent upper-level winds on the SE side of this system are triggering scattered moderate and isolated strong convection over a broad area which includes the northern Caribbean as well as the Greater and Lesser Antilles. This area stretches from 15N to 25N between 57W and 71W. Surface ridging will prevail across the area during the entire period. A surface trough will develop north of Hispaniola Sunday night and will drift west-northwest across the Bahamas through Mon night. The pressure gradient between this trough and the ridge will support fresh to strong winds northeast of the northern Bahamas. Winds from Tropical Storm Michael may clip the waters offshore N Florida mid-week as the storm moves NE to the north of the area. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... Tropical Storm Warning Mon night into Tue. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... Tropical Storm Warning Mon night into Tue. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... Tropical Storm Warning Mon into Tue. .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... Tropical Storm Warning tonight into Tue. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ011...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 85W INCLUDING YUCATAN BASIN... Tropical Storm Warning tonight into Mon. .AMZ013...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN... Tropical Storm Warning tonight into Mon. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.