000 AGXX40 KNHC 061840 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 240 PM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 mb high is centered over N Georgia near 34N83W. Surface ridging is producing 10-15 kt E to SE winds over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are noted over the NW Gulf, and over the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over W Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula, moving N. High pressure will prevail over the forecast area through much of the the weekend. Low pres moving NW from the Caribbean has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Strong to gale-force winds associated with this system will start impacting the southeast gulf waters, including the Yucatan Channel by Sunday night. These conditions will spread north through early this week. Seas are currently forecast to peak near 14 ft. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Widely scattered moderate convection is over the northern Caribbean from 18N-22 between 60W-80W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the central Caribbean from 15N-18N between 72W-75W. Low pres centered near 17.5N86W will drift north into the south-central Gulf of Mexico the next couple of days. There is a high chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Gale force winds are expected to develop over the eastern semicircle of the low by Sun night. Seas over the NW Caribbean are expected to peak near 14 ft. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... High pres over the region will shift east of the area by early next week, bringing an increase in E to SE winds and building seas over the waters N of 25N. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered E of the Bahamas near 26N69W. Upper level diffluence E of the center is enhancing the convection over the Leeward Islands. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... Gale Warning Sun night into Mon. .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... Gale Warning Sun night into Mon. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... Gale Warning Sun night into Mon. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ011...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 85W INCLUDING YUCATAN BASIN... Gale Warning Sun into Mon. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.