058 AGXX40 KNHC 261838 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 238 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Upper-level diffluence over the north-central Gulf Coast is enhancing showers and thunderstorms over southern Louisiana and the Gulf waters north of 27.5N between 90W-94W. This enhanced activity has generally been moving slowly westward. A thermal trough is analyzed over the central Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and Tuxpan and over the Gulf south of 21N and west of 95W. High pres NE of the region will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas less than 4 ft across most of the region through Sun. The only exception is locally fresh winds each night associated with a trough moving over the E Bay of Campeche. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Tropical Storm Kirk near 12.1N 54.3W 1002 mb at 11 AM EDT moving W at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Kirk will move to 12.7N 56.1W this evening, 13.7N 58.7W Thu morning, 14.5N 61.0W Thu evening, 15.2N 63.2W Fri morning, and weaken to a tropical depression near 16.0N 68.0W Sat morning. Kirk will become a remnant low as it moves near 16.0N 72.0W early Sun. Kirk is expected to produce very heavy rain across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands Thursday through much of Friday. These rains may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially across Martinique and Dominica. Elsewhere, instability generated by the eastern Pacific monsoon trough that protrudes into the far southwestern Caribbean, along with upper-level divergence in the area is generating an area containing numerous moderate and isolated strong convection from Panama northward to 12N between 77W-84W. In the northwest Caribbean, upper-level anticyclonic turning is helping to generate scattered moderate convection from 16N-19N between 83W and the coast of Belize. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south- central Caribbean through Thu. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... An upper-level anticyclone is enhancing isolated showers and thunderstorms over the southeast and central Bahamas, northern Cuba, and the Florida Straits. A high pressure ridge extends over the northwest Bahamas and the waters east of Florida, creating fair weather north of 25N west of 75W. High pressure will continue to build southward across the west- central Atlantic through Thu. Large swell generated by an intense low pressure system over the north- central Atlc is expected to spread east of 75W by Fri night, and continue through the weekend. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... Tropical Storm Warning Thu into Fri. .AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W... Tropical Storm Warning Thu into Thu night. .AMZ035...OFFSHORE WATERS WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO... Tropical Storm Warning Thu into Fri. .AMZ037...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... Tropical Storm Warning today into Thu night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.