395 AGXX40 KNHC 020734 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 334 AM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging over the SE United States is maintaining gentle to moderate SE flow this morning across the Gulf, with 2 to 4 ft seas. Upper forcing is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms near the Florida Big Bend area and to a lesser extent north of the Yucatan Channel. The main forecast issue for the next several days remains the development of a trough currently over the central Bahamas. The trough is expected to move across southern Florida Mon, accompanied by heavy rainfall and gusty winds. The trough will move into the southeast Gulf by late Mon, supporting strong winds and building seas. There is better agreement among global models a low will form along the trough as it moves into the central Gulf Mon night into Tue, and there is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development by Tue over the north central Gulf. Expect at least near gale force winds and seas to 11 ft over the north central Gulf by late Tue north of 27N between 85W and 90W. Winds and seas will diminish Tue night into early Wed as the low pressure moves inland over the north central Gulf coast. Elsewhere, expect fresh to locally strong winds off the west coast of Yucatan in the evening hours through mid week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Nocturnal winds will continue to pulse to fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean the next several nights. This was confirmed recently by a 02 UTC scatterometer pass showing near gale force winds off the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. In fact, the scatterometer pass showed minimal gale force winds in a small area along the east coast of the Gulf of Venezuela. Elsewhere moderate to occasionally fresh trades dominate the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active off the south coast of Cuba, related to divergent flow aloft at the base of an elongated upper low over the Bahamas. A tropical wave from central Panama to central Cuba will move west of the area tonight. Another tropical wave approaching the eastern Caribbean will move through the central Caribbean by late Mon, and west of the area by mid week. Seas will remain 2 to 4 t in the northwest Caribbean, 6 to 8 ft over the south central Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft seas elsewhere through the period. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Fresh to strong SE winds were noted in a 02 UTC scatterometer pass across the southern Bahamas, in the wake of a trough moving through the central Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the Bahamas, mainly in the southern Bahamas near the approaches to the Windward Passage. This convection is related to an elongated upper trough extending above the Bahamas. Elsewhere gentle to moderate SE winds are noted in recent buoy and scatterometer data, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Winds and seas will diminish across the Bahamas Mon as the trough shifts west of the area. This will leave generally moderate E to SE winds across the region, pulsing to fresh winds along the northern coast of Hispaniola mainly during the late evening and overnight. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.