086 AGXX40 KNHC 221827 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 227 PM EDT Wed Aug 22 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1020 mb is analyzed near 26N94W as of 15Z, while a surface trough extends from southeastern Georgia southwestward to the northeastern gulf and continues to near 27N91W. The nocturnal Yucatan Peninsula trough has moved across the southwestern gulf during the late night and early morning hours, and is analyzed from near 21N96W to 18N94W as of 15Z. The present pressure gradient across the gulf generally supports light to gentle winds throughout, except for gentle to moderate winds south of 26N and relatively low seas of 1 to 3 ft. A surface trough will develop along the western Yucatan Peninsula during the next several late afternoons, then drift westward across the southwest gulf waters during the overnight hours accompanied by a fresh east to southeast wind shift with the trough dissipating along 96W during the late mornings. The surface high near 26N94W will meander over the northwest waters through late Thu while a weak trough moves southeast across the northeastern gulf waters where it will stall on Thu, and then drift west and dissipate on Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... An upper level trough extends from eastern Cuba southwestward to just east of northeastern Honduras. Water vapor imagery indicates plentiful deep layer moisture along and to the northwest of this trough, and it is where isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection has increased over the far southwestern Caribbean south of 11N between 77W and 82W mainly due to low-level wind speed convergence, with the added factor of the eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough that stretches east- northeastward to the far southwestern Caribbean along 09N and to the typical climatological low found over northwestern Colombia presently located just offshore that coast at 09N76W. Strong to near gale force easterly trades are expected along the northwest coast of Colombia and across the Gulf of Venezuela tonight, with the strong winds reaching as far north as 15N, with seas building to 11 ft. A tropical wave along 76W will pass through the west Caribbean late this week. A second tropical wave along 66W will continue west across central Caribbean waters tonight. A third tropical wave in the central Atlantic along 45W will reach along 55W on Thu. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A surface trough is analyzed from 29N61W to 21N68W. A shear axis is evident by model and satellite winds to be situated northwest of the trough from 32N65W to 25N70W to east-central Cuba. Satellite imagery shows increasing scattered showers and thunderstorms within 180 nm to the northwest of the trough between 65W and 69W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen over the western portion of the basin west of about 75W. This activity as well as that to the northwest of the surface trough are expected to last through tonight and into Thu. An east to west ridge will meander from near 31N65W to 27N80W for the next several days as a weak cold front stalls just off the northeast coast of Florida. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected north of ridge ahead of the weak front, while moderate to fresh trades are expected south of 23N, except becoming locally strong along the north coast of Hispaniola on Thu and Fri afternoons into early evenings. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.