563 AGXX40 KNHC 041900 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... The 1502 UTC Ascat pass along with streamline analysis and buoy data show what appears to be a subtle trough that extends from near 28N85W to 23N87W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms along and near the trough have diminished a little since this morning, and they are occurring from 24N to 28N within 180 nm either side of the trough. The trough will move westward across the southern and central waters through Sun night accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Numerous showers and thunderstorms cover the western half of the gulf west of 92W as supported by a mid to upper-level inverted trough that stretches from along the Texas coast to central Mexico. Upper diffluence to the SE of the trough between the trough and an a small anticyclone anchored near 19N94W is providing upper ventilation for the more concentrated part of the convection that is situated from 20N to 25N between 94W and 97W. This activity is forecast to continue through Sun night by which time the trough is forecast to have moved inland Texas and Mexico. Surface troughs moving offshore the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to locally strong winds over the eastern waters of the Bay of Campeche from the evenings to late at night over the next few days. Otherwise, high pressure ridging will prevail in the wake of the trough, with the associated gradient allowing for gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow over the area along with relatively low seas in the 1 to 3 ft range, except for higher seas in the 3 to 5 ft range in the SW Gulf due to the pulsing fresh winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Fresh to locally strong trades are expected in the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Wed night. The strongest winds will pulse to 30 kt near 12N74W during the overnight hours where seas could reach the range of 10 to 14 ft. The area of stronger trades will expand in coverage across the central Caribbean by the early part of the week as the pressure gradient across the basin tightens. Winds may approach minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia late Wed night as central Atlantic high pressure presses south. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Winds will pulse to strong speeds near the northern coast of Hispaniola each night through Wed night. Otherwise, trade winds across the region will gradually diminish through early next week as a ridge across the Atlantic weakens as a backdoor cold front drops down from the N. The front will weaken into a trough by Sun evening. Weak low pressure may develop along the trough through early next week. Ridging will redevelop by the middle next week as the troughing dissipates. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail N of 22N along with 2 to 4 ft seas. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.