982 AGXX40 KNHC 010703 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 303 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front across SE Texas will stall along the Texas coast during the next two days. A surface trough analyzed from the Florida panhandle to the central Gulf near 25N93W will remain nearly stationary through Fri. This trough is acting as a focus for low level convergence beneath a large area of upper level diffluence over the Gulf, resulting in widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms across the basin. This synoptic pattern is not going away soon, and it is likely that numerous showers will persist in this area into at least Thu. GFS model guidance shows a very active line of convection ahead of the trough axis later this afternoon and evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A typical summertime pattern of high pressure in the west-central Atlantic and lower pressure in northern South America associated with a monsoon trough extending out into the eastern Pacific is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds in the central Caribbean and pockets of higher winds in the Gulf of Honduras and south of Haiti. The ridge across the Atlantic breaks down after Thu, and winds in the central Caribbean will diminish slightly. A tropical wave near 80W will move into Central America on Thu, and a wave in the tropical N Atlantic near 55W will increase shower activity in the southern Windward Islands as it moves into the SE Caribbean Wed night and Thu. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A strong high pressure ridge across the Atlantic will break down in the central Atlantic Thu and Fri as a mid-latitude trough pushes southward between 45W and 55W. The eastern part of the ridge will lift northward into the Carolinas, and trade winds will diminish across the region through the latter part of the weekend. Winds will continue to pulse to 20-25 kt north of Hispaniola through Thu night. Winds will be gentle to moderate over the waters N of 22N. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.