572 AGXX40 KNHC 161930 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 330 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high is centered over the central gulf waters near 26N91W, and is the main feature that is influencing the synoptic pattern across the basin. Its associated gradient is allowing for generally light to moderate anticyclonic flow to exist over the gulf waters. Current NWS mosaic radar displays show scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms rapidly increasing over the far northern gulf north of 28N between 86W-90W near a weak surface trough. This activity is expected to remain active through at least the next couple of days as upper-level disturbances moves from E to W around the eastern periphery of an upper-level anticyclone centered over western Texas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms moving westward are present over much of the eastern gulf waters as well as over the eastern half of the central gulf. This activity should continue through tonight and into Tue. Otherwise, weak high pressure will prevail across the basin through Thu night, except for the Bay of Campeche where a surface trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening accompanied by fresh nocturnal winds. Another weak trough is expected to form over the NE Gulf by Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A rather dry and stable environment is in place, with mainly fast moving showers in trade wind flow across much of the basin. The only exception is thunderstorms S of 10N over the SW Caribbean in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. Strong high pressure centered in the north- central Atlantic that spans SW to the northern Caribbean will support fresh to near gale force winds over the south- central and much of of the SW Caribbean the next several days. Gale force winds will pulse within 90 nm of the coast of NE Colombia Tue night and Wed night as a tropical wave passes W of the area. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A weak surface trough extends from near 32N78W southwestward to just east of NE Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen north of 28N between 72W and 79W. Another surface trough extends from near 32N60W to 29N67W and northwestward to near 32N76W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along and within 90-120 nm SE of this trough between 60W-64W while isolated showers and thunderstorms are along and within 60 nm SE of the trough between 64W-75W. This trough will slowly weaken through Tue as the supporting upper trough lifts to the NE away from it. High pressure will build in the wake of the trough. A large area of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust that is currently over the central Atlantic from 08N-24N and between 45W-60W will continue to translate westward through the rest of the week. A weaker area of dust is visible from the SE Bahamas to 60W and from 09N-27N, also translating in westward motion. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning Tue night into Wed. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed night into Thu. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.