000 AGXX40 KNHC 030630 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 230 AM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A trough extends from a weak 1013 mb low near 30N88W to 25N88W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected near this system as it slowly moves W toward NE Texas through Wed. A high pressure ridge over the remainder of the Gulf will change little through Sat night. A surface trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through Sat, and help enhance nocturnal winds over the SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A broad tropical wave extending from the Windward Passage to Panama will enter the western Caribbean Wed and arrive over Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula Thu morning. The next tropical wave to affect the Caribbean is over the tropical Atlantic near 52W. This wave will move across the tropical N Atlantic tonight, enter the eastern Caribbean Tue afternoon, reach the central Caribbean Thu and the western Caribbean Thu night. Fresh winds over the central Caribbean will become strong Wed through Fri night. Near gale force NE winds are possible near the coast of Colombia Thu night and Fri night. The GFS and GFS ensemble have both trended downward with regard to the strength of the winds forecast along the coast of Colombia around 06Z Fri, when the ridge to the N of the Caribbean will be strongest. Based upon this trend have held off on adding a gale to the forecast for now. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Broad low pressure near 27N70W has weakened the high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic. Model guidance remains consistent in keeping the low weak and tracking it SW towards the Bahamas today, then toward Florida Wed in the form of a surface trough. The high will rebuild and strengthen Wed through Sat night as the trough dissipates near Florida. A new low is progged by both the GFS and ECMWF to form on the E side of the mid to upper- level trough that lingers between Bermuda and Florida. The low should form Wed morning near 30N65W, then track W to near 30N72W, then turn sharply NE and remain offshore. Confidence in this forecast scenario is small due to the small size of this system and the propensity of the GFS model for convective feedback. Have kept winds and seas below advisory levels in the vicinity of this system for now. Winds N of Hispaniola will Pulse to strong speeds each day during the afternoon and evening hours beginning on Wed. Otherwise, generally tranquil marine conditions are expected over the remainder of the area through the forecast period. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.