000 AGXX40 KNHC 021900 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A trough extends from a weak surface low near Pensacola Florida to near 28N90W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected near the trough and low as they slowly move westward through Wed. A high pressure ridge covering the remainder of the Gulf will change little through Sat night. The northern portion of a tropical wave along 96W and S of 20N will move inland Mexico by this evening. A surface trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through Sat, and assist to enhance nocturnal winds over the SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A broad tropical wave with axis extending from Haiti to 15N75W and to NW Colombia will move across the central Caribbean through from the rest of this afternoon and through Tue night, the western Caribbean Wed and Wed night before moving over Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula Thu morning. The next tropical wave to affect the Caribbean is over the tropical Atlantic along 51W/52W. This wave will move across the tropical N Atlantic tonight through Tue morning, across the eastern Caribbean Tue afternoon through Wed evening, then across the central Caribbean Thu and and across the western Caribbean Thu night through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean will gradually diminish through Tue before increasing again Wed through Fri night. Near gale force nocturnal NE winds are possible near the coast of Colombia Thu, Fri and Sat, with some possibility of winds reaching minimal gale force. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A high pressure ridge extending west-southwestward across the western Atlantic will weaken through Tue in response to broad low pressure centered near 28N67W that will move southwestward towards the Bahamas. The high will rebuild Wed through Thu night as the low weakens into a trough, then tracks across the NW Bahamas and over Florida Wed night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany the low and trough. East to southeast winds will pulse to fresh to strong intensity between the Bahamas and the north coast of Hispaniola during the afternoons and into the following mornings beginning on Tue as new high pressure ridging associated with a strong high center northeast of the forecast waters builds southwestward from the north-central Atlantic towards the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola. The strong high center and its associated ridge is forecast to weaken some Thu through Fri as a low pressure system forms near Bermuda and tracks westward near 31N through early Fri before turning to the north away from the forecast waters by Fri night. The gradient between the low and the central Atlantic high pressure to its northeast and east will tighten on Fri and through Sat likely leading to increasing southeast to south winds of mostly moderate intensity over the eastern and central sections of zone AMZ115 along with seas of 4-6 ft. These winds will shift to more of south to southwest direction on Sat as frontal system approaches the far NW waters of the basin. The seas of 5-7 ft are forecast to subside to 3-4 ft Sat. These conditions will be prone to updates pending the exact intensity the low acquires. Otherwise, generally tranquil marine conditions are expected across the region through Sat night. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.