000 AGXX40 KNHC 010647 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 247 AM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A low pressure trough will support showers and thunderstorms over the NE Gulf through Tue. This trough is supported by troughing aloft at the mid and upper levels. A high pressure ridge covering the remainder of the Gulf will change little through Thu night and maintain a generally benign weather pattern over the basin. A surface trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through Thu, and act to enhance nocturnal winds over the SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A tropical wave near 75W will continue W and reach central America tonight. Another tropical wave near 54W will move into the tropical North Atlantic region tonight, then cross the eastern Caribbean Mon through Tue night and the central Caribbean Wed and Wed night. A third tropical wave near 38W will reach the windward islands Tue night. Dry Saharan air impinging on the N side of all 3 waves is inhibiting the associated convection for each of these systems. Fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean will gradually diminish Sun through Tue before restrengthening Wed through Thu night. Strong winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Mon Morning. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A high pressure ridge extending WSW across the western Atlantic will weaken through Tue in response to the development of broad low pressure NE of the Bahamas. This area of low pressure will be induced by a sharp mid to upper-level low which has formed near the base of a trough extending SSW over the western north Atlantic. This low is centered E of Cape Hatteras near 35N63W. Model guidance remains in general agreement in steering the low S over Bermuda, then SW over the Bahamas and W toward the NE Gulf during a Sun through Wed time frame. The surface reflection of this system should consist of a broad area of surface low pressure centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas on Mon. The low should weaken into a trough on Tue as it heads toward Florida and then lose identity near Florida on Wed. Low- level convergence and cold air aloft in the vicinity of this system should increase the coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the areas affected by this system. Otherwise, generally tranquil marine conditions are expected across the region through Thu night. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.