000 AGXX40 KNHC 300652 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 252 AM EDT Sat Jun 30 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A low pressure trough will support showers and thunderstorms over the NE Gulf for the next few days. This system has been induced by a mid to upper-level trough extending S from Georgia. Model guidance is in general agreement in weakening the trough at all levels and steering the system W along the northern Gulf coast through the middle of next week before it weakens. Weak high pressure covering the central and western Gulf will change little through Wed. A surface trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through Wed, and act to enhance nocturnal winds in the SW Gulf. Winds over the Bay of Campeche adjacent to the Yucatan could become locally strong, especially on Tue and Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Expansive 1035 mb high pressure centered NW of the Azores dominates the Atlantic. A tropical wave near 69W will move across the Caribbean basin through Sun evening. A tropical wave near 48W will move into the tropical North Atlantic region on Sat and Sun, and reach the eastern Caribbean Sun evening. Yet another tropical wave currently near the Cabo Verde Islands could reach the Windward Islands Tue or Tue night.Fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean will gradually diminish Sun through Tue as low pres to the N weakens the subtropical ridge. The ridge will rebuild during the second half of next week as the low weakens and shifts W. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Broad high pressure extending SW across the west- central Atlantic will slowly weaken during the first half of next week in response to the development of broad low pressure NE of the Bahamas. The development of this area of low pressure will be in response to an amplifying mid to upper-level trough off the E coast of the United States. Model guidance is in general agreement the the base of this trough will cut off from the westerlies and get steered S over Bermuda, the SW over the Bahamas and W toward the NE Gulf during a Sun through Wed time frame. A broad area of weak low pressure or surface troughing should be induced beneath the upper-level feature after it forms. Low- level convergence and cold air aloft in the vicinity of this system should increase the coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the areas affected by this system. Otherwise, generally benign marine conditions are expected across the region through the middle of next week. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.