000 AGXX40 KNHC 161808 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 208 PM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A strong surface trough extending from near 24N89W to the eastern Bay of Campeche will move WNW through early Sun night accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms that could produce rough seas. A tightening of the pres gradient between the trough and high pres that extends westward from the Atlantic will support fresh to strong SE winds over the west-central Gulf waters, increasing to strong to near gale force over the central Gulf this afternoon. These winds will spread westward through Tue while gradually diminishing with the trough shifting inland over Texas. Model guidance has shown a diminishing chance of gale force winds with runs during the past 24 hours, so will continue to highlight winds up to 30 kt. Large seas will build with the winds and prolonged SE fetch extending into the NW Caribbean through the Yucatan Channel with seas up to 14 ft in the central Gulf possible by tonight. Also, heavy rainfall across the Yucatan toward the western tip of Cuba will also persist through tonight, with frequent lightning also posing as a potential hazard to mariners across the Yucatan Channel. Ridging extending from the Atlantic will dominate the basin in the wake of the trough with mainly moderate to fresh winds across the SW half of the basin, strongest NW of the Yucatan, and gentle to moderate across the NE half of the basin through the upcoming week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan toward the western tip of Cuba will also persist through tonight, with frequent lightning also posing as a potential hazard to mariners across the Yucatan Channel. A tropical wave along 87W will move westward across Central America today. A tropical wave along 67W will move across the remainder of the eastern Caribbean through Sun, the central Caribbean Sun night through Tue and the western Caribbean Tue night through Wed night. Another tropical wave will move across the Tropical N Atlantic Sun night through Mon night, and the eastern Caribbean Tue through Wed night. The wave is expected to be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Strong trades across the central Caribbean between 69W and 83W will slowly diminish through Sun night as the pressure gradient begins to weaken. The strongest winds will become confined to the S central waters, with similar pulsing winds continuing in the vicinity of the Gulf of Honduras. The pressure gradient across the basin will continue to weaken through the upcoming week, with mainly moderate trades present, except moderate to fresh across the central Caribbean. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A trough offshore northern and central Florida will be overtaken by a backdoor cold front today, which will drop southward through early next week. High pres ridging south of the boundaries will shift southward. Relatively weak high pres will build southward across the northern and central waters Tue through Wed night. Ridging will dominate for the end of the upcoming week, with mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and 2-4 ft seas across the offshore waters basin. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.