000 AGXX40 KNHC 151739 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 139 PM EDT Fri Jun 15 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough across the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf will shift WNW moving inland of Mexico by this evening. A stronger trough will shift from the NW Caribbean through the NW Gulf tonight through Sun, accompanied by widespread convection. A tightening pressure gradient E of this second trough will induce fresh SE winds in west-central Gulf waters tonight, becoming strong to near gale in the central Gulf this weekend, spreading W through early next week. While 25-30 kt winds are likely, it is also possible that there could be 35 kt winds for a brief period of time, although confidence is not high enough at this time to mention gale conditions possible or for a gale warning. Ensemble probabilities are still near zero, while some deterministic guidance shows a few 35 kt pixels. In any event, gusty conditions and deep convection will impact the central and eventually NW Gulf waters this weekend. The trough then looks to stall inland over the Texas coastal plain thereafter. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Deep convection covers the majority of the NW Caribbean where a surface trough is evident with a tropical wave axis just to the SE along 82W/83W. A mid to upper level trough also extends from the western Gulf of Mexico SE to across the Yucatan Peninsula helping to support this activity. Fresh to near gale force winds were recently sampled by scatterometer data NW of the tropical wave. These conditions are expected to shift W of the area into the weekend. Otherwise, a tropical wave along 64W will move into the central Caribbean this weekend. Strong trades across the central Caribbean between 70W and 85W will slowly diminish this weekend as the pressure gradient loosens into early next week. The strongest winds will become confined to the S central waters, with similar pulsing winds continuing in the vicinity of the Gulf of Honduras. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A surface trough offshore of northern and central Florida will be overtaken by a backdoor cold front this weekend which will sink S through early next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring N of 27N will shift E-SE ahead of the boundaries. SW winds ahead of the features will increase to fresh N of 27N, with any stronger winds remaining E of 65W. High pres ridging S of the boundaries will sink southward ahead of the features. New high pres will build from N of the area by Tue through Wed. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.