000 AGXX40 KNHC 141838 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 238 PM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough, the northern portion of a tropical wave, is moving WNW across the central Bay of Campeche and W Gulf, with associated moisture embedded in llvl SE flow as far N as 26N. Models show inverted llvl troughing developing across this area next 24-36 hr then shifting WNW and inland through Sat. The pressure gradient will tighten in association with this trough, will produce freshening SE winds across W central portions through Fri, becoming fresh to strong SE to S winds over the weekend. Latest GFS has really increased this SE flow by Sat to 25-30 kt in association with Yucatan thermal trough combining with persistent troughing, for 25-30 kt. Would expect significant area of 25 kt and seas to 11 ft Sat afternoon but will wait for confirmation of other global models before accepting 30 kt and 12 ft or greater. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A tropical wave across the central Caribbean will move westward across the W Caribbean and into Central America through Sat. A second tropical wave will pass west through the southeast Caribbean tonight and Fri reaching the central Caribbean during the upcoming weekend. Strong trades currently across the central Caribbean will shift slightly west across the waters between 70W and 85W then begin to diminish Sat through Sun. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... An east to west ridge along 27N will shift south along 25N on Fri, along 24N on Sat and weaken along 23N on Sun as a weak cold front passes east through the waters north of 25N. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are forecast along the northern coast of Hispaniola during the late afternoons and evenings through Fri, with moderate easterly flow forecast elsewhere south of the ridge. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is expected north of the ridge becoming moderate to fresh southwest flow just ahead of the front on Sat and Sun, with a brief moderate northeast breeze expected to the north of the cold front on Sun. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.