000 AGXX40 KNHC 081930 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 330 PM EDT Fri Jun 8 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A mid to upper low will meander remains parked over the northeast Gulf of Mexico, supporting areas of showers and thunderstorms over Florida, and to a lesser extent across the far eastern Gulf waters. A few showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing near 27N86W. Dry conditions are noted elsewhere over the central and western Gulf on the west side of the upper low. The pattern will remain mostly unchanged for a few days, with the upper low over the northeast Gulf enhancing convection over the eastern Gulf. A surface trough will develop along the Yucatan Peninsula late each afternoon, drift westward across the southwest Gulf during the overnight hours accompanied by a fresh to locally strong wind shift, with the trough dissipating along 95W during the late mornings. An east to west ridge will meander across the northern Gulf waters through the period with moderate southeast return flow increasing to fresh breeze late Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Scattered thunderstorms are active over the far southwest Caribbean between central Panama and southeast Nicaragua. This activity is due in part to low level convergence of fresh to strong trade winds in the wake of a tropical wave currently moving into Central America. Widespread mid to upper cloudiness is evident from Honduras toward Jamaica, at the base of an upper trough situated over the far northwest Caribbean. High pressure north of the area over the western Atlantic is maintaining fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean, reaching near gale force off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela during overnight hours due to drainage flow. Seas in excess of 8 ft covers most of the south central and southwest Caribbean, with maximum seas reaching 14 ft. The main forecast issue through Sat night will be whether the near-gale force winds will increase to minimal gale force. Global models sporadically show this, but not consistently, so will hold off on gale warnings at this time. Winds and seas over the south central Caribbean diminish Sun as a tropical wave migrates eastward across the region, weakening the gradient. The winds and seas will increase again early next week in the wake of the tropical wave. A building Atlantic ridge and lowering pressure over the eastern Pacific will support a broad swath of mainly fresh to strong E to SE winds across the south central and northwest Caribbean from early to mid week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... An east to west ridge will meander between 27N and 28N through Tue, supporting moderate to fresh winds south of 22N, pulsing to 25 kt off Hispaniola during overnight hours. Light to moderate southerly flow is expected along and north of the ridge. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.