000 AGXX40 KNHC 221829 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 229 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge over the northern Gulf coast will shift east through mid week ahead of a developing low pressure area expected to emerge off the coast of Yucatan Thu night. The low will move slowly N and approach the N central Gulf coast by Sat evening, bringing fresh to strong winds and building seas to the eastern Gulf. The latest forecast update continues to favor a consensus of the models with respect to track and speed, which carry the low to near the N central Gulf coast by Sat evening. A considerable spread in the models continues to persist, especially with respect to how quickly the low lifts N. Convection and winds associated with this system are expected to be focused to the E of 90W. Winds and seas are expected to diminish on Sun and Mon as a high pressure ridge builds back over the Gulf from the Atlantic to the S of the departing low. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Ridging near 30N will maintain fresh to locally strong trades over the central Caribbean and strong winds and seas to 9 ft will affect the NW coast of Colombia through Fri. Broad surface low pressure is centered just east of Belize near 17N87W. An upper- level trough passes to the W of the surface low from the Straits of Yucatan to the Gulf of Honduras. The upper-level trough is producing shear over the surface low, but upper-level divergence on the east side of the low is generating showers and thunderstorms over most of the Caribbean S of Cuba. The low will remain nearly stationary through Wed, then will move N along the western shore of the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico by late Thu. The lions share of convection and winds will remain displaced to the east side of this system as it lifts northward due to the continuing presence of the upper-level trough on the W side of this system. Fresh to strong winds will develop between the trough and the Atlantic high pressure south of Cuba Fri. A high pres ridge over the western Atlc will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the basin Sat and Sun. Winds near the immediate coast of N Colombia could pulse to strong during the overnight hours during this time frame. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... An E to W ridge along 30N will support gentle to moderate SE winds north of 22N and moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N into mid week, with winds pulsing to strong N of Hispaniola mainly at night. Winds and seas will diminish slightly by Fri as the ridge shifts east. SE winds may increase near Cay Sal Bank and the Florida Straits starting Fri as low pressure moves northward through the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between low pres moving N from the NE Gulf of Mexico will cause the pressure gradient to increase and generate fresh SE to S winds over the waters W of 75W on Sat and Sun. Winds along the coast of Florida could become strong on Sun. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.