000
AGXX40 KNHC 211856
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
256 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge will remain over the northern Gulf Coast through Thu 
night. A surface trough currently extending from near the western
tip of Cuba to the Florida Panhandle will drift westward over 
the central Gulf by Wed. Low pressure may develop over the far NW
Caribbean Thu and move N along the trough into the S central 
Gulf Fri. Model guidance consensus brings the low toward the N 
central Gulf coast by Sun. The latest forecast update favors the 
Canadian model which compromises between the ECMWF and GFS with 
respect to how fast the surface low moves across the Gulf. Fresh 
to strong winds are forecasted to be on the east side of this 
system. Models remain in good agreement in keeping the strongest 
winds to the east of the center. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

Atlantic Ocean high pressure will maintain fresh to locally 
strong trades over the central Caribbean through Fri night. 
Strong winds and seas to 9 ft will affect the NW coast of 
Colombia. A surface trough currently extends from the NW coast of
Panama across eastern Honduras and Nicaragua to the NE tip of 
the Yucatan Peninsula. The trough will linger over the far 
western Caribbean through Thu. Low pressure may form along the 
trough over the Gulf of Honduras Thu, then move N over the Gulf 
of Mexico Fri. Fresh to strong winds will develop between the 
trough and the Atlantic high pressure over the central and 
western Caribbean Thu through Fri night. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

An E to W ridge will reside near 30N through Fri night. The 
ridge will support fresh to locally strong E to SE winds over the
Florida Straits tonight and S of 22N between 70W and 77W, 
including the Old Bahama Channel, and the approaches to the 
Windward Passage through Wed. This area of winds will contract 
and be confined to the N coast of Hispaniola by Wed night. Fresh 
to occasionally strong winds will continue to pulse N of 
Hispaniola, mainly at night through Sat. A broad area of low 
pressure may develop over the NW Caribbean and move northward 
across the eastern Gulf late in the week. This will weaken the 
ridge N of Hispaniola but cause strong SE to S winds to develop 
over the waters N of Cuba and W of 75W Fri night through Sun. 

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.