000 AGXX40 KNHC 200628 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 228 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge, with axis across the northern Gulf, dominates most the region. A surface trough extends from SW Florida to western Cuba. Under the influence of this weather pattern, gentle to moderate E-SE winds and seas of 2-4 ft are noted over the eastern half of the Gulf, while moderate to fresh winds and seas of 4-6 ft are observed across the western half of the Gulf. The trough will drift westward across the eastern Gulf through late Tue while a ridge extending N-S will dominate the western Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are expected on the E side of the trough. A thermal trough will develop during the evening hours over the Yucatan Peninsula, then move west across the southwest waters during the overnight hours, and dissipate by late each morning. A surge of fresh to ocassionally strong NE-E winds will accompany this trough. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop in the NW Caribbean Sea on Thursday. Easterly winds are expected to gradually increase across the southeast gulf waters and the Straits of Florida late Thu into Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... The Atlantic ridge will maintain fresh to locally strong trades across the central Caribbean through most of the forecast period, with highest seas of 9 ft forecast off the northwest coast of Colombia. In the mean time, a surface trough is developing over the western Caribbean, and will drift westward over the next 2-3 days. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form near the southern end of the trough over the SW Caribbean likely on Mon, and move NW over Nicaragua and Honduras, emerging into the Gulf of Honduras by Thu. The pressure gradient between the trough and the Atlantic high pressure will help to maintain the fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean, and parts of the western Caribbean. A recent scatterometer pass shows an area of fresh to strong SE-S winds from 15N-19N between 78W and 82W, on the east side of the trough that currently extends from 21N81W to 15N82W. A weak tropical wave, with axis along 53W S of 15N will approach the Windward Islands this evening. The wave passage could produce some shower activity tonight. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... An east to west ridge will meander across the northern waters through the middle of the week supporting fresh to locally strong winds across the southern waters, including the approaches to the Windward Passage. The most recent ASCAT pass indicates an area of fresh to strong E-SE winds S of 25N between 66W and 71W, with the strongest winds of 25-30 kt just N of Hispaniola. Seas of near 10 ft are within this area of winds, based on altimeter data. This area of fresh to strong E-SE winds will expand westward through Mon reaching 80W. Moderate to fresh SE winds are expected across the Old Bahama Channel through the middle of the week. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.