000
AGXX40 KNHC 131800
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough will enter the SE Gulf today and tonight. Low
pressure will develop along the trough W of Florida on Mon and
move NW, moving inland over the SE United States by midweek.
Showers and thunderstorms will affect the Gulf waters near and E
of the low. Model guidance remains consistent in keeping this
system weak until it makes landfall. Despite a negatively tilted
trough at the upper levels over the eastern Gulf, model guidance
has trended downward with respect to areal coverage and intensity
of the convection associated with this system. Convection
continues to be sheared to the east side of this system during
this time frame as well.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

Fresh to strong trades will prevail over the south central 
Caribbean through Thu night and ridging over the western Atlc 
remains in place. NE swell are decaying but will remain high 
enough to maintain seas around 8 ft over the southern portion of 
the tropical N Atlc forecast waters until Mon. Long term model 
guidance suggests a broad area of low pressure developing over 
Central America could cause winds over the SW Caribbean to become
strong by Sat.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A surface trough extending from near 31N75W to the Florida Keys 
near 24N82W will shift W over Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico 
today and tonight. A high pressure ridge E of the trough will 
maintain moderate winds N of 25N and fresh winds S of 25N through
Thu night. Low pres over the NE Gulf of Mexico will tighten the 
pressure gradient over the waters N of the Bahamas from 27N to 
29N between 77W and 79W on Mon night. Strong SE winds are 
expected during this time frame over this area as a result. Winds
N of Hispaniola will pulse from fresh to strong from afternoon 
to late evening each day through the forecast period. The area of
strong winds N of Hispaniola will expand northward to as far as 
23N by Sat as the high pressure ridge over the western Atlc 
gradually strengthens and low pres over northern South America 
deepens slightly.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.