000 AGXX40 KNHC 121807 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 207 PM EDT Sat May 12 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure over the northern waters will lift northward this weekend as a surface trough develops over the SE Gulf in response to a mid to upper-level trough digging over the central Gulf. Low pressure will develop along the trough W of Florida on Sun and slowly move NW toward the Florida Panhandle as the mid level trough cuts off from the westerlies. The upper-level trough for this system will move little Sun through Wed and assume a negative tilt as it extends over the Gulf from near Mobile Alabama to the Florida Keys. This surface low will make landfall Tue night and then head into the SE United States. Favorable upper-level dynamics and deep moisture will maintain showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf waters near and E of the surface low until it makes landfall. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... The same weather pattern for the basin remains in place through the end of next week. Fresh to strong trades will prevail over the south central Caribbean through Wed night as a high pressure ridge remains in place over the western Atlc in the vicinity of 32N and persistent low pressure remains in place over norther S America. Fresh winds N of Hispaniola will pulse to strong from afternoon to late evening through the end of next week. Model guidance consensus calls for the high pressure ridge over the western Atlc will build slightly during the second half of next week. This could cause the area of strong winds N of Hispaniola to expand as far N as 23N during this time frame. NE swell will remain high enough to maintain seas around 8 ft over the southern portion of the tropical N Atlc forecast waters through the weekend, then swell will decay and allow seas in this area to subside below 8 ft. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A surface trough extending from near 31N69W to W of Andros Island near 24N80W will slowly lift NW over Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sun. A high pressure ridge over the western Atlc will maintain moderate to fresh SE winds over the forecast waters through Wed night. Winds could become strong N of 27N and W of 77W Mon night as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge of high pressure extending W along 32N and the low pressure developing over the NE Gulf tightens. Convergent low-level winds will support the development of showers and thunderstorms over the western Bahamas and the E coast of Florida through the middle of the week. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.