000 AGXX40 KNHC 060613 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 213 AM EDT Sun May 6 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extending from the Florida Panhandle near 30N86W to N of Tampico Mexico near 23N98W will move across the northern gulf waters through Sunday and exit the eastern Gulf Sun evening. High pressure building over the basin the wake of the front will support gentle to moderate N to NE winds through Tue night. Winds over the basin will veer NE to E Wed through Thu, except for SE to S over the far western gulf in return flow as the high shifts toward the NE gulf. Weak surface troughing developing over the Yucatan each afternoon Tue through Sat will cause winds on the W side of the peninsula to increase each day, but winds will only top out at moderate to locally fresh. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A surface trough aligned along 80W supports fresh to strong E to SE winds over the eastern Caribbean. These winds will gradually become fresh and back to the E Sun through Tue as the trough heads WNW and weakens and strong Atlc high pres weakens slowly. A large upper-level low centered over Cuba will trigger showers and thunderstorms over the central and easter Caribbean through Tue. Low pressure to the N of the Caribbean will weaken the subtropical ridge and maintain a relatively light wind regime over the basin on Wed and Thu. High pressure ridging from the E over the western Atlantic will tighten the pressure gradient over the basin and allow strong winds to return to the coast of Colombia on Fri and Sat. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A surface trough extends N from the Florida Straits near 23N81W to just NE of Jacksonville near 31N80W. Satellite-derived winds as well as ship and buoy observations show the wind field on the E side of the trough has weakened. The area of strong winds has diminished and is concentrated just to the NE of the Windward Passage. Otherwise, winds from the Bahamas to N of Puerto Rico are fresh. The trough will remain near the Florida Peninsula and gradually weaken through Mon night as the high pressure ridge extending W along 31N retreats eastward. A weak cold front will enter the waters N of the Bahamas Sun night, then push slowly SE over the NW Bahamas by Tue night. A weak surface low will develop to the E of Florida and just N of Grand Bahama along the front Mon night, but the entire system will lose identity and combine with the surface trough moving slowly E from Florida on Wed. The trough will remain nearly stationary Thu through Fri night and weaken as high pressure continues to ridge WSW from the Azores to just E of the Bahamas. This synoptic setup will generally support light to moderate winds over the region, with the exception that winds could pulse from fresh to locally strong speeds just to the N of Hispaniola during the evening hours Tue through Sat. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.