000 AGXX40 KNHC 051950 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 350 PM EDT Sat May 5 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extending from southeastern Louisiana to inland northeast Mexico near San Fernando will move across the northern gulf waters through Sunday and exit the eastern gulf Sun night evening. High pressure building in the wake of the front will support gentle to moderate north to northeast winds over the area. These winds will change little through Tue night before becoming northeast to east in direction Wed through Thu, except for southeast to south winds over the far western gulf in return flow as the high pressure shifts to the northeast gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A broad upper-level low centered over Cuba is slowly moving south. Its associated surface feature is analyzed as a trough that stretches from central Cuba south-southeastward to just west of the NW coast of Colombia. Plenty of instability to the east of these features is resulting in numerous showers and thunderstorms north of 14N between 70W and 74W, and also within 30 nm of a line from 15N74W to 14N76W. Expect for this activity to linger through early next week as the upper low gradually weakens to a trough that moves eastward across the eastern Caribbean. Upper dynamics from a well-pronounced upper level jet stream currently over the eastern Caribbean in combination with the additional factor of instability provided by the upper low should be favorable enough for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms that are presently taking place there to continue through late Tue until the aforementioned trough swings east of the Caribbean late Tue night into Wed. A tight gradient between strong central Atlantic high pressure and the surface trough has induced strong E to SE winds over the eastern half of the central Caribbean as well as over the western half of the eastern Caribbean. These winds will gradually subside to fresh winds and become more E in direction Sun through Tue as the trough pulls off to the west-northwest while weakening and the strong Atlantic high pressure weakens some. NE to E fresh winds across the tropical north Atlantic will change little through the period. Seas to 9 ft in NE to E swell southwest of a line from about 18N62W to 11N55W will shrink in coverage through Mon, then subside to 5 to 7 ft late Mon, and remain at that range through Thu. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... The main feature is a surface trough that extends from central Cuba near 22N80W northward to along the Florida coast up to northern Palm Beach, then NNE to near 30N79W. The trough will continue inland across the Florida peninsula this evening through Sun. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along with fresh to strong winds and seas to 10 ft are expected mainly to the east of the trough, while scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will precede the trough. A weak cold front will enter the waters N of the Bahamas Sun evening and merge with the northern portion of the surface trough. The front will slow down as it reaches from near 31N78W to western Cuba Mon afternoon, then become stationary from near 31N75W to west- central Cuba late Mon night through Thu as it weakens. Weak low pres is expected to track northeastward along the front Mon through Tue. Fresh to strong southerly winds will precede the front over the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas through Mon night, then diminish to fresh winds late Mon night. The front will begin to slowly dissipate through Thu as high pressure ridging begins to build westward along 31N. From Tue through Thu, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the eastern section and much of the central section of the basin, while gentle to moderate NE to E winds are expected over the western section of the basin. Winds will be light and variable in the vicinity of the Bahamas. E to SE winds will pulse to strong intensity between the SE Bahamas and Hispaniola beginning in the afternoons and through the overnight hours starting Sun. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.