000 AGXX40 KNHC 050641 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 241 AM EDT Sat May 5 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front will enter the NW Gulf this morning, then slide eastward along the northern Gulf coast through Sunday evening. The portion of the front S of 27N will dissipate as the front heads E. The front will have little effect on either winds or weather as it it translates eastward. Otherwise, high pres building over the Gulf behind the front will promote gentle to moderate N to NE winds over the basin through Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Fresh easterly winds will prevail over the eastern Caribbean and tropical N Atlantic through Sun night. A surface trough extends southward from eastern Cuba to near Jamaica. This trough is associated with a broad area of mid to upper-level low pressure centered over the middle of Cuba. This system will produce widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms N of 15N between 70W and 80W through Sun night. Winds and seas will gradually subside Mon and Tue. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A surface trough extends NNE from E Cuba near 21N75W to 28N73W. The trough will drift westward in association with a broad mid to upper-level disturbance centered over Cuba. The trough will move over southern Florida on Sat. Widespread showers, embedded thunderstorms, fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected in the vicinity of the trough through Sun night. Satellite-derived winds indicated 20 to 30 kt winds in the vicinity of the trough. The area of enhanced winds extended about 200 nm to the W and 600 nm to the E of the trough axis. Altimetry showed seas up to 13 ft just east of the trough axis where the winds were strongest. Winds and seas were both higher than the model guidance envelope, so forecast grids for day 1 were manually adjusted upward accordingly. Otherwise, forecast closely follows continuity as model guidance remains in general agreement in slowly weakening the trough Sun through Tue as it remains near or over the Florida Peninsula. A weak cold front will move E from southern Georgia on Sun evening, then stall N of the Bahamas on Mon and Tue. A weak area of low pres will form on the boundary during this time frame and support an area of strong winds and seas of 8 ft and above near and N of 31N to the W of 73W. This area could slowly settle southward into the NW corner of the discussion area on Wed. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.