000 AGXX40 KNHC 030805 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 405 AM EDT Thu May 3 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Expect fresh to strong SE return flow tonight off Texas between ridging across the Deep South states and troughing over the Southern Plains. This will diminish by morning as the trough lifts out, with the ridge maintaining moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the region. Fresh to strong winds will persist through the Straits of Florida through Fri as tight pressure gradient persists to the NW of old frontal trough through the Bahamas. A trough will develop across the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening and move W each night beyond 95W tonight through Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... THigh pressure N of the area along 33N will maintain fresh trades across the eastern and central Caribbean through Thu. Trade winds diminish slightly as a trough develops north of Puerto Rico tonight through Thu and drifts slowly W. An upper level disturbance will drift SW from the Bahamas across eastern and central Cuba to the north central Caribbean, and interact with the surface trough to produce scattered thunderstorms Fri through late Sat over the north central Caribbean, and impacting the Windward Passage. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A stationary front from 27N65W through the central Bahamas to W central Cuba will meander overnight and dissipate late Thu. Strong NE to E winds will persist north the front through the northern Bahamas between high pressure north of the area and a trough developing tonight and Thu to the north of Puerto Rico. The trough will amplify and drift west, reaching 73W Fri morning and 80W late Sat. Active weather will accompany the trough, with strong E to SE winds and building seas following in its wake east of the Bahamas through late Sun. The GFS has shifted significantly to the W with the movement of this trough, and now is fastest and eventually farther W than ECMWF/UKMET. Have continued to follow the consistent ECMWF solution with this feature. Very heavy rainfall is possible Fri and Sat across the Bahamas, Hispaniola and E Cuba as upper trough interacts with the trough, with weather then shifting into Florida over the weekend. A weak frontal boundary will stall off NE Florida Mon. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.