000 AGXX40 KNHC 021917 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 317 PM EDT Wed May 2 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging extending east to west across the Deep South states, maintaining moderate to fresh southeast winds across the basin. Buoys and recent altimeter data indicate 4 to 5 ft seas in most areas. No significant shower or thunderstorms activity is noted. The pressure gradient will tighten slightly tonight over the coast of Texas, between the ridge to the east and troughing over the Southern Plains. This will allow fresh to strong SE return flow to set up overnight, but diminish through the early morning as the trough lifts out. Meanwhile, a thermal trough will develop over the northwest coast of Yucatan, a normal occurrence this time of year, and drift westward. This may enhance east flow over the southwest Gulf before dissipating later in the morning. This pattern will repeat each evening through the period. Winds over the Gulf will diminish Sat as low pres across the central U.S. weakens and the high moves E. A trough will develop across the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening and move W each night beyond 95W tonight through Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Persistent high pressure north of the area is support fresh to strong trade winds off Colombia, as noted in an earlier scatterometer pass from 15 UTC. A concurrent altimeter pass showed seas nearing 8 ft in this area. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds persist, with 4 to 6 ft seas in the eastern and central Caribbean, 3 to 5 ft seas in the northwest Caribbean, and no significant convection noted. Fresh trades and 6 to 8 ft seas area noted in the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Leeward and Windward Islands. The high pressure north of the area will maintain the fresh trades across the eastern and central Caribbean. A trough will develop north of Puerto Rico Thu and drift slowly west. This will break up the gradient, and keep relatively low winds of 15 to 20 kt off northeast Colombia and 10 to 15 kt elsewhere over the western Caribbean. A cold core mid/upper low pressure area will drift southward from the Bahamas across eastern and central Cuba to the north central Caribbean, accompanied by scattered thunderstorms Fri through late Sat, and impacting the Windward Passage. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A stationary front extends from 27N65W through the central Bahamas to near central Cuba. A scatterometer pass from 15 UTC showed fresh to strong winds within 180 nm north of this boundary east of the Bahamas. The fresh to strong winds are supported by persistent high pressure north of the area extending along 32N. Seas are likely 7 to 9 ft. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within 120 nm south of the boundary between 70W and 77W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted elsewhere, with 5 to 7 ft seas in open waters. A sharp upper trough reaches from the north central Atlantic, across Bermuda, to the waters north of the northern Bahamas. A cold-core mid/upper low will become cutoff from the trough Thu and drift across the central Bahamas to eastern Cuba. An associated surface trough will develop N of Puerto Rico Thu morning. Active weather spawned by the instability of the cold- core low along with rich moisture drawn northward in the fresh to strong convergent SE flow will accompany the surface trough as it moves W through the Bahamas by late Fri and into the Florida peninsula Sat. Aside from scattered thunderstorms, the main impact will be fresh to strong SE flow Fri in Sat on the east side of the trough with 8 to 10 ft seas in open waters east of the Bahamas. Winds and seas diminish Sun and Mon as the trough shifts farther westward and dampens out and the mid/upper low weakens over the Caribbean. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.