000 AGXX40 KNHC 011832 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 232 PM EDT Tue May 1 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered ESE of Charleston SC near 32N74W will track ESE through Thu and maintain an E to W ridge across the N gulf waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds will become fresh to strong over the far SE Gulf, Straits of Florida and western Gulf today through early Fri as high pressure builds southeastward over the western Atlantic and low pressure deepens over the Central Plains States. Winds over the Gulf will slacken on Sat as the low weakens and moves E. A surface trough will develop each afternoon over the Yucatan Peninsula, then head W over the Bay of Campeche during the overnight hours. Winds within 90 nm of shore on the W side of the peninsula will become fresh to strong each night Wed night through Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... High pres near the S Carolina coast will slide slowly E along 33N through Thu to maintain fresh trades across the entire area south of 17N, with locally strong trades across the south central Caribbean. The southern portion of a broad inverted trough will move W across the extreme NE Caribbean and adjacent Atlantic Wed night, reach along 69W by Thu evening, then across Hispaniola to 73W by Fri evening, and along 77W Sat morning. High pres to the NE of trough will induce fresh to locally strong E to SE winds, and active weather E of trough. Model guidance consensus keeps most of the winds and weather on the E side of this system. The fetch of fresh to strong E to SE winds on the lee side of this system, will translate from the eastern Caribbean to the central Caribbean during a Thu night to Sun night time frame. The deep layer-trough associated with this system will weaken the ridge to the N of the Caribbean and cause winds N of Colombia to become light to moderate Sat and Sun. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... An old frontal boundary extends from near 28N65W SW to the central Bahamas near 24N75W. The front will remain nearly stationary through Thu. As the high slides E, fresh to strong NE to E winds will develop between 28N and the front. A broad surface trough will reach 63W Wed morning and move W, reaching 67W Thu morning, move to 72W Fri morning, and to 77W Sat morning. High pres to the NE of trough will support fresh to locally strong E to SE winds, and active weather E of trough. The surface trough will receive increasing support from a large mid to upper-level low that will be developing over the SE Bahamas and N central Caribbean on Thu night and Fri. The latest forecast issuance continues to favor a more progressive and lower amplitude system. Model guidance remains consistent in suggesting the strongest winds and convection will be focused on the E to SE side of this system. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.