000
AGXX40 KNHC 301801
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
201 PM EDT Mon Apr 30 2018

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered near W Virginia ridges SE to the Straits 
of Florida. The high will track ESE off the S Carolina and 
Georgia coasts tonight but continue ridging W across the N gulf 
waters through Thu. Moderate to locally fresh winds will become 
fresh to strong over the far SE Gulf and Straits of Florida 
beginning Tue, then continue through early Thu as high pressure 
builds southeastward over the western Atlantic and low pressure
over the Central Plains States maintains a relatively tight
pressure gradient over the SE and western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

Strong high pressure remains centered over the N central Atlc. 
The high will maintain fresh trades across the entire area south 
of 17N, with locally strong trades across the south central 
Caribbean through early Thu. The southern portion of a broad 
inverted trough will pass over the eastern Caribbean Wed night, 
the NE Caribbean Thu, then across Hispaniola Thu night and Fri, 
followed by fresh to locally strong E to SE winds, and active 
weather. Model guidance consensus keeps most of the winds and 
weather associated with this system to the N, but do agree on the
fetch of fresh to strong E to SE winds setting up on the lee 
side of this system, then translating from the eastern Caribbean 
to the central Caribbean during a Thu night to Mon night time 
frame.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A stationary front stretches from 31N65W SW to 27N71W to the 
coast of E central Cuba near 21N77W. A weak cold front moving SE 
from Florida will merge with the stationary front by early Tue. 
The merged front will reach from 27N65W to W Cuba near 23N79W by 
early Wed. Strong high pressure will slide eastward along 31N 
tonight through early Thu and bring fresh to strong NE to E winds
to much of the central and SW waters N of the front. A broad 
surface trough will approach 65W Thu night and move W to near 75W
Sat, followed by fresh to locally strong E to SE winds, and 
active weather. The latest forecast favors a system from the 
slower and lower amplitude side of the latest model guidance. 
Model guidance remains consistent in suggesting the strongest 
winds and convection will be on the E to SE side of this system.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.