000 AGXX40 KNHC 312032 AAA MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 432 PM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Updated Caribbean Sea and Tropical N Atlantic Section Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Visible satellite imagery shows the leading edge of the stalling frontal boundary from just north of Naples southwestward to 25N86W to 23N89W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche. The imagery reveals multilayer clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms from 22N to 25N between 85W and 88W, similar type clouds with embedded areas of rain and scattered showers within 120 nm NW of the boundary east of 85W. Isolated light showers moving westward are to the southeast of the frontal boundary over the Straits of Florida this afternoon. A trough over the SW gulf extends from 20N94W northwest to just east of the Mexican coast north of Tampico. The buoy observations are reporting moderate to fresh NE winds to the northwest of the boundary east of 90W, and gentle to moderate N to NE winds west of the boundary to the west 93W. The buoys along with recent altimeter data are showing seas in the range of 4-6 ft range, except for a pocket of 6-7 ft seas from 24N to 27N between 87W and 93W, and lower seas of 2-3 ft over the far eastern portion of the gulf. The forecast remains pretty much on track like the previous ones of recent days. The stalled out frontal boundary will weaken tonight into early Sun. Its remnants will drift back to the west across the eastern gulf on Sun, and dissipate by late morning on Mon. The ongoing precipitation associated with the frontal boundary as described above will shift east of the gulf on Sun a rather shortwave trough noted on water vapor imagery moving over the eastern gulf swings eastward across the eastern gulf and Florida. Some shallow shower activity may lag behind over the eastern gulf Sun night and Mon. The Yucatan Peninsula thermal trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon through Thu, drift westward across the eastern Bay of Campeche during the overnight hours, and dissipate over the SW gulf by late each morning. The high pressure will weaken and begin to shift eastward on Mon in response to the next cold front forecast to approach the area. This next cold front will move into the NW gulf on Wed morning, reach from the Florida Big Bend region to near 24N91W and become stationary to the Bay of Campeche Wed night. It will weaken as it reaches from S Florida to the south- central waters and to the SW waters on Thu. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds will follow in behind the front through Wed night before becoming mainly moderate east wind on Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...Updated Latest buoy observations along with a few ship reports indicate seas in the range of 3-5 ft east of about 82W, except for higher seas of 8-10 ft south of 13N between 75W and 78W and 7-9 ft elsewhere south of 14N between 74W and 79W. A pocket of 6-7 ft seas is southeast of the Dominican Republic from 15N-18N between 68W-71W. Lower seas of 2-4 ft are W of 82W, and just south of Puerto Rico. A tight pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure north of the area, and persistent broad low pressure over Colombia, will support strong trades along the northwest coast of Colombia through late Sun night, then pulse again Mon and Tue nights over a much smaller area along the coast of Colombia. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades are forecast elsewhere through Thu night. A surface trough, currently approaching the Lesser Antilles from the east, will move across the eastern Caribbean Sun through Sun through Tue night. Moisture guidance indicates that it will become diffuse on Wed as it passes to the southeast of Hispaniola. It is expected to be attendant by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Visible satellite imagery from this afternoon shows the leading edge of the cold front extending from near 31N74W to Stuart Florida and southwest from there to just north of Naples. The imagery also shows extensive multilayer cloudiness with embedded areas of rain and scattered showers existing along and within 150 nm to northwest of cold front. Isolated showers are elsewhere northwest of the front. The buoys along with a few ships reports and coastal buoys are reporting NE winds of 15-20 kt northwest of the front, with seas of 4-5 ft. To the southeast of the front, the buoys and ship reports indicate mainly moderate east winds, with more of NE component to the east of 72W. The seas southeast of the front are 4-5 ft, except for higher seas of 6-7 ft south of 27N and east of 68W. Low seas of 1-3 ft are south of 28N and west of 75W. The forecast remains pretty much on track like the previous ones of recent days. The cold front will reach from near 31N73W to 29N77W and become stationary to Fort Pierce early this evening. The stationary portion will weaken tonight, then drift westward as it gradually dissipates across the waters north of the Bahamas by Sun night. A high pres ridge will extend from 31N70W to Cape Canaveral Florida on Mon through late Tue night. The ridge will retreat eastward on Wed allowing for a cold front to enter the far northwest waters on Wed night, and from near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas to S Florida by late on Thu. Deep low-level moisture moving from east to west, and that is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, may impact the far eastern portion of the basin late on Sun and into Mon. This moisture is associated with a large central Atlantic trough that is moving westward around 15 kt. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.