000 AGXX40 KNHC 262048 AAA MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 448 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Updated SW N Atlantic Section Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Latest satellite derived winds and buoy observations indicate moderate to fresh southeast winds across the area, with some small spots of locally strong winds over the central and western gulf waters. Winds are east to southeast in direction across the southeast section of the gulf. Observed sea state and recent altimeter data reveal seas in the range of 4-6 ft over the western portion of the gulf from 20N to 28N west of 92W, and 3-4 ft elsewhere except for lower seas in the range of 1-2 ft over the far eastern portion. High pressure ridging that extends from the western Atlantic westward to across the eastern and central sections of the gulf will begin to weaken on Thu afternoon as it shifts eastward in response to a cold front that enters the NW Gulf early on Thu. Prior to this happening, the southeast winds will vastly increase in coverage, in the strong range, to cover just about the entire gulf west of about 88W. This cold front is expected to move just off the Texas and SW Louisiana coasts early on Thu with a possible trough ahead of it. The strong gradient allowing for the strong southeast winds will then slacken allowing for these winds to diminish to moderate to fresh intensity during Thu afternoon. The cold front will be forecast to reach from southeastern Louisiana to the far western gulf and to just south of Tuxpan late Thu afternoon, from the western Florida panhandle to the SW Gulf early on Fri then weaken as it reaches from near Sarasota Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by Fri night. The front will move slightly south late Fri night before it stalls on Sat and gradually becomes diffuse into Sat night. The front will be preceded by a trough and followed by mainly fresh N to NE winds, except for strong NW winds along portions of the Mexican coast adjacent to the SW Gulf on Fri. A trough will develop over the Yucatan peninsula each evening through Sat and shift westward across the SW Gulf during the overnight hours. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Latest satellite derived winds and buoy observations indicate fresh to strong winds continuing across much of the central Caribbean, except reaching near gale force off the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere across the Caribbean as well as the tropical N Atlc forecast zones. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 6-8 ft over the north central Caribbean, except in the lee of Hispaniola where seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the eastern Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the western Caribbean, and 6-8 ft over the tropical N Atlc forecast zones. High pressure over the western Atlc will support fresh to locally strong trades across the south central Caribbean the next several days. Winds will pulse to minimal gale force along the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight hours through Thu night. E winds will pulse to strong winds over southern part of the Gulf of Honduras beginning tonight and through Wed, then expand northward in coverage on Thu and Thu night. These winds then diminish to mainly fresh winds on Fri. A rather large batch of N swell from the western and central Atlantic will begin to infiltrate the Mona Passage and other NE Caribbean passages beginning on Wed and through Thu night before it undergoes the decaying process through Fri. Undersea volcano Kick em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around Kick em Jenny. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Strong high pres ridging building southward is over the western Atlantic, while a dissipating stationary front is over the far southeast portion of the basin. Isolated showers are along and near the front. A backdoor front is quickly pushing southward along a position from near 31N60W to 26N70W and northwestward to inland Florida just south of Melbourne early this afternoon. Latest satellite derived winds along with buoy observations and a few ship reports are noting seas in the 8-11 ft range behind the backdoor cold front, and seas of 5-7 ft elsewhere except for lower seas of 1-3 ft west and southwest of the Bahamas. The backdoor cold front will sweep southward across the remainder of the basin through Tue reaching the far southeastern waters Tue night as it weakens and gradually transitions to a stationary front. Strong high pressure from the Mid-Atlantic region will build southward behind the front, with the gradient between it and the front maintaining strong N to E winds over much of the forecast waters through early on Tue. Winds will be NE to E in direction over the western half of the area, including the far southwest portion and Straits of Florida by Tue. Later on Tue the aforementioned strong winds should be confined to the far southern waters, including the Windward Passage and Straits of Florida, and going into Wed as well. These wind conditions are expected to diminish late Wed through Thu. The main marine hazard will be very large waveheights attributed to N to NE swells to affect the waters NE and E of the Bahamas Tue through at least early on Thu. Waveheights maxing out to around 16 ft can be expected over the northeast section of the area during this time before subsiding by late on Thu. The swell is expected to propagate into the NE Caribbean through passages, including the Mona Passage Wed through late on Thu before subsiding. Fresh to strong NE winds will continue to plague the Windward Passage and adjacent waters through Thu night diminishing to fresh to strong on Fri, and mainly fresh winds on Sat. The dissipating stationary front over the far southeast portion will transition to a trough by late tonight, then begin to slowly move east-southeastward Tue through Wed as the above described cold front approaches it. The next cold front is expected to approach the northwest portion of the area on Fri, and move over the extreme far NW waters on Sat followed by moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning within 90 nm of coast of Colombia. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE within 90 nm of coast of Colombia Tue night, Wed night and Thu night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.