000 AGXX40 KNHC 251957 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 357 PM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Latest satellite derived winds and buoy observations indicate gentle to moderate across the area. Observed sea state reveals seas in the range of 4-5 ft over the western portion of the gulf from 20N to 28N west of 92W, and 3-4 ft elsewhere except for lower seas in the range of 1-2 ft over the far eastern portion. High pressure ridging that extends from the western Atlantic westward to across the central gulf will remain in control of the weather regime through tonight before it is replaced by stronger high pres from the NE United States that will build south and southwest across the gulf Tue through Wed before it begins to weaken Wed night as a slow moving cold front moves across eastern Texas. This cold front is expected to move just off the Texas and SW Louisiana coasts early on Thu. It is forecast to reach from southeastern Louisiana to the far western gulf and to NE Mexico early on Thu night, from the western Florida panhandle to Tampico early on Fri and from N central Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by late Fri afternoon into early evening. Generally fresh northerly winds will follow in behind the front before increasing to fresh to strong over some sections of the central and western gulf on Fri. A trough will develop over the Yucatan peninsula each evening and shift westward across the southwest Gulf during the overnight hours through Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Latest satellite derived winds and buoy observations indicate fresh to strong winds continuing across much of the central Caribbean, except reaching near gale force off the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere across the Caribbean as well as the tropical N Atlc forecast zones. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 6-8 ft over the north central Caribbean, except in the lee of Hispaniola where seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the eastern Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the western Caribbean, and 6-7 ft over the tropical N Atlc forecast zones. High pressure over the western Atlc will support fresh to locally strong trades across the south central Caribbean the next several days. Winds will pulse to minimal gale force along the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight hours. E winds will pulse to strong winds over southern part of the Gulf of Honduras beginning Mon night and through Wed, then increase northward in coverage on Thu and Thu night. These winds then diminish to mainly fresh winds on Fri. A rather large batch of N swell from the western and central Atlantic will begin to infiltrate the Mona Passage and other NE Caribbean passages beginning on Wed and through Thu. It should begin to decay Thu night into Fri. Undersea volcano Kick em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around Kick em Jenny. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... High pressure of 1022 mb is centered near 28N68W, with a ridge extending west-southwestward across S Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. A dissipating stationary front is over the far southeast portion of the basin. Scattered showers are associated with this boundary and are impacting the extreme southeastern waters. Latest satellite derived winds along buoy observations and a few ship reports are noting seas in the 8-10 ft range to the northeast of the Bahamas north of 29N between 69W and 77W, and seas of 5-7 ft elsewhere east of the Bahamas except for higher seas of 6-8 ft from 25N to 27N east of 67W and lower seas of 1-3 ft west and southwest of the Bahamas. A very progressive atmospheric pattern continues as yet another cold front is poised to sweep south-southeastward across the area beginning tonight. The cold front, presently just offshore the SE United States and connected to low pressure of 1013 mb located at 33N76W, will begin to impact the far northern waters tonight. It will then quickly reach from near 31N65W to 27N72W to 28N78W and become stationary to inland central Florida near Cape Canaveral early on Mon, then reach the southeast portion of the basin early on Tue from near 23N65W to across the southeastern Bahamas as a weakening stationary front. Strong high pressure from the Mid-Atlantic region will build southward behind the front, with the gradient between it and the front leading to strong N to E winds over much of the forecast waters from Mon through Tue. Winds will be NE to E in direction over the western half of the area, including the far southwest portion and Straits of Florida by Tue. Beginning on Tue night the strong NE to E winds should be confined to the far southern waters, including the Windward Passage and Straits of Florida, and going into Wed as well. These wind conditions are expected to diminish late Wed through Thu. The main marine hazard will be very large waveheights attributed to N to NE swells to affect the waters NE and E of the Bahamas Tue through at least early on Thu. Waveheights maxing out to around 16 ft can be expected over the northeast section of the area during this time before subsiding by late on Thu. The swell is expected to propagate into the NE Caribbean through passages, including the Mona Passage Wed through late on Thu before subsiding. Fresh to strong NE winds will continue to plague the Windward Passage and adjacent waters Thu and Thu night diminishing to mainly fresh winds on Fri by which time the next frontal system will be approaching the northwest part of the area. It is possible that it may just over a portion of the northwest corner of the area on Fri night. Models differ on timing of the front moving over forecast waters. Will await future model runs to obtain a better handle on this next frontal system with respect to the NDFD winds and associated waveheights. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning within 90 nm of coast of Colombia. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE within 90 nm of coast of Colombia Tue night, Wed night and Thu night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.