000 AGXX40 KNHC 111955 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 355 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... The complex of numerous showers and thunderstorms that affected much of the central and eastern gulf yesterday and during the overnight hours has quickly exited the gulf basin, and is presently well to the east of Florida. A line of numerous thunderstorms with frequent lightning is observed from southeastern Louisiana to the far western Florida panhandle racing southeastward towards the coastal waters of Louisiana and Alabama. This activity is associated with the next short-wave trough that is presently moving over the eastern portion of Mississippi. These showers and thunderstorms, capable of producing strong gusty winds, are expected to move across the northeastern section of the N central gulf and over the NE Gulf during this afternoon and tonight ahead of the next cold front that is currently over eastern Texas and nearing the coast. This next cold front, moving a bit slower than earlier anticipated, is forecast to move off the Texas coast by early this evening, then move southeastward cross the entire basin through Mon, and across the Straits of Florida on Mon evening. Brief gale force winds are expected behind the front over the far western gulf on Mon, and in the SW gulf Mon afternoon and night. Strong northerly winds elsewhere in the wake of the front will diminish from the NW through Mon night. Seas are forecast to peak near 11 ft over the SW Gulf associated with the gale. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will cover much of the central and western Gulf after the frontal passage, before winds diminish. A ridge will extend from NE Texas to the Straits of Florida on Tue, then slide eastward while materializing into a high center of about 1025 mb over the NE Gulf by Thu, and shift slightly to the southeast on Fri. At that time, a ridge will extend from the high westward to NE Texas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Fresh to strong trades will continue across the waters east of 80W, with a large swath of southeast winds to near gale force noted on an the 1348Z Ascat pass to be located just north of the A-B-C islands to near 17N between 67W-72W.The minimal gale force winds that occurred during the overnight hours off the NW coast of Colombia and Gulf of Venezuela diminished to strong winds shortly after 12Z. The ridging to the northeast of the region helping to support the stronger winds will shift eastward through Tue night allowing for the tight gradient over the eastern Caribbean and eastern part of the central Caribbean to slacken. This will allow for the strong trades and winds to near gale force to diminish in speeds. A cold front will enter the Yucatan channel and far NW Caribbean late Mon afternoon or early evening, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Tue, stall from Hispaniola to Nicaragua Tue night, and dissipate by Thu. Strong high pres will build southeastward from the Gulf of Mexico to over the NW Caribbean beginning on Thu night. Strong NE are expected to develop to the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage and vicinity waters Fri and Fri night. Seas to 8 ft are expected between Jamaica and the Windward Passage on late on Fri or possibly a little earlier. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... An area of numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms has shifted to the east of the Bahamas during the day associated with a trough both at the surface and aloft. This activity still is located from 26N to 28N and between 61W and 74W, and contains frequent lightning as it quickly moves eastward through Mon as the next cold front moves across the southeastern United States. This next cold front will emerge off the Georgia and NE Florida coasts late tonight into early on Mon. The front will reach from near 31N79W to West Palm Beach early Mon afternoon, from near 31N75W to NW Cuba Mon evening, from near 31N67W to 26N70W to eastern Cuba early on Tue before stalling from near 27N65W to central Cuba Tue night. The cold front will gradually weaken through Thu as high pres builds eastward over the area. Minimal to strong gale force winds are expected across some areas E and W of the front Mon through early Tue afternoon before lifting out to the northeast of the basin. In the wake of the cold front, relatively weak high pres ridging will build W to E along 27N through early on Wed as yet another strong cold front begins to advance across the NW waters of the basin. Latest guidance depicts this front to be preceded by fresh to strong southwest winds and mostly strong W to NW winds to the N of 27N as it quickly moves across the forecast waters to just east of the zones early on Thu with winds diminishing throughout, except in the far southern waters between the SE Bahamas and Cuba and to along the NW part of Haiti and Windward Passage areas where strong N-NE winds are expected. A post-frontal trough will sweep across the waters just north of the far northeast portion of zone AMZ115 late Thu night into Fri followed by strong west winds and large seas attributed to an extensive batch of NW swell that will follow it right on the heels of the swell area associated with the cold front that exits the area on Thu as stated earlier. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning W of 96W Mon. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Mon into Mon night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... Gale Warning N of 30N E of 79W late Mon afternoon and night. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Gale Warning Mon night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning Mon night.GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night into Tue. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.