000 AGXX40 KNHC 102000 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Satellite imagery from throughout the day has been and is showing an extensive area of numerous showers and thunderstorms covering much of the central and eastern gulf waters from 25N to 29N and east of 93W. Lightning data depicts frequent lightning strikes with this activity. The persistence of this activity has initiated a strong enough gradient that has increased the southeast flow from the NW Caribbean Sea into the S central gulf waters into the fresh to strong range. As a result, seas over these waters have risen 8 ft in some spots. This is higher than wave guidance had projected. I adjusted grids accordingly to reflect these observed conditions. The aforementioned weather is attributed to a rather vigorous short-wave trough that is quickly swinging eastward across the central gulf. This feature has kicked off a surface trough that extends from near 26N83W to 24N86W and to 23N89W. The short-wave trough will exit the eastern gulf late tonight into early on Sun allowing for the surface trough to weaken. The fresh to strong southeast winds are expected to diminish to mainly moderate winds on Sun morning allowing for the associated seas to lowering to below 8 ft. A cold front will move off the Texas coast Sun afternoon, then move southeastward across the entire basin through early Mon and across the Straits of Florida on Mon evening. A brief instance of gale force winds is possible behind the front over the far western gulf on Mon and far SW gulf waters on Mon night. Strong northerly winds elsewhere in the wake of the front will diminish from the NW through Mon night. A ridge will extend from NE Texas to the Straits of Florida on Tue, and shift NE on Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Fresh to strong trades will continue across the waters east of 80W, except increasing to minimal gale force during the overnight hours tonight off the NW coast of Colombia and Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong southeast winds over the far northwestern portion of the sea and Yucatan Channel in response to a localized tight pres gradient that is being generated by an eastern and central Gulf of Mexico trough are expected to diminish to mainly moderate winds late tonight. Otherwise, a strong cold front will enter the Yucatan channel and far NW Caribbean on Mon, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Mon night, and stall from Hispaniola to Nicaragua on Tue, and dissipate by Thu. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A stationary front over the SE portion will weaken through Sun. Remnants of the front will lift back to the during Sun and Sun night ahead of another cold front moving off the NE Florida coast on Sun night, stall across the tropical waters north of the Greater Antilles tonight. Remnants of the front will lift back to the N on Sun ahead of another cold front moving off the NE Florida coast on Sun night. This cold front will extend from near 31N75W to northwest Cuba late Mon, and stall from 27N65W to central Cuba on Wed and Thu. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night into Tue. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight into Sun. .AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight into Sun. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night into Tue. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night into Tue. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.