000 AGXX40 KNHC 280643 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 143 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong winds off the north coast of Yucatan. The winds are related to weak a weak trough forming most evenings off the west coast of Yucatan and are fairly localized and will be short lived. Elsewhere, weak ridging extends across the basin. This is supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes over most of the Gulf with 1 to 3 ft seas, except for fresh southeast breezes over the northwest Gulf with 3 to 5 ft seas. No widespread areas of fog are noted over open waters. The fresh southerly flow over the northwest Gulf will diminish tonight ahead of a cold front moving into the northern Gulf early Thu. Strong northerly winds will follow the front over mainly the western Gulf into Fri. The front will stall from the Straits of Florida to near Veracruz Mexico by late Fri before dissipating Sat. A ridge will build across the Gulf through Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Weakening high pressure north of the area is supporting generally moderate to fresh trade winds across the basin this morning. The exception was noted in scatterometer data from 02 UTC which showed fresh to strong NE winds through the Windward Passage. Seas are 3 to 5 ft. Upper diffluence on the southeast side of a broad upper trough reaching from Hispaniola to Costa Rica is supporting a few showers embedded in the trade wind flow over the southeast Caribbean. Elsewhere across the central and western Caribbean, fairly dry conditions are in place under the upper trough axis. Reinforcing high pressure north of the area will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds across the basin, with strong winds pulsing at night off Colombia through late week. These winds will diminish by Sat as the high pressure weakens and shifts east ahead of a deep low pressure moving into the western Atlantic. Large swell will impact the tropical Atlantic waters through Sat, with a more significant swell event penetrating the NE Caribbean Sun. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Strong northeast winds follow a cold front reaching from 31N60W to the Straits of Florida. A few showers are noted east of 65W in phase with a supporting upper short wave trough and in an area of higher deep layer moisture. Drier conditions persist elsewhere, but low level clouds persist within 120 nm of the front. Recent buoy and altimeter data showed 6 to 9 ft seas north of 27N. Farther south, gentle to moderate winds prevail. The cold front will stall east of the Bahamas and dissipate through late Thu. Fresh southerly flow will increase late Thu off NE Florida ahead of another cold front moving off the coast Thu night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Fri, just ahead of a reinforcing front with strong to possibly gale force winds north of 24N related to deep low pressure moving off the Virginia coast. The fronts will merge Sat and reach from 22N65W to the Windward Passage by Sun. A significant swell event will accompany this system, affecting all waters E of N Florida and the Bahamas by the end of the week. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat into Sat night. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat into Sun. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.