000 AGXX40 KNHC 110701 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 201 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Southerly return flow dominates the Gulf region ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf during the next few hours. A recent ASCAT pass indicated fresh to strong south winds across the north-central Gulf. These winds coincide with an area of showers and tstms currently affecting the waters N of 28N between 85W and 90W. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms. The front will reach a position from SE Louisiana to just south of Brownsvile, Texas by this evening, and from the western Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche by Mon evening, where it will stall and gradually weaken. Fresh to strong northerly winds and buiding seas to 8 ft will follow the front tonight and Mon. The remnants of the front may lift nortward on Tue while a trough will remain over the SW Gulf. Then, a ridge extending from the Atlantic through the State of Florida will dominate the Gulf the remainder of the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Recent scatterometer data indicate minimal gale force winds near the coast of Colombia, and fresh to strong NE-E winds across the remainder of the east and central Caribbean, and also over the Tropical N Atlantic waters. A pair of altimeter passes showed seas up to 11 ft E of 72W. Fresh NE winds are also noted across the Windward Passage, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Strong trade winds will continue to prevail across the east and central Caribbean, including the Atlantic passages through at least Tue. Winds will reach minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia each night, particularly between 03Z-12Z. Latest run of the computer model suggests winds in the 30-40 kt range near the coast of Colombia tonight into early Mon morning, with seas building to 15 or 16 ft. On Mon, the fresh to strong trades will cover most of the Caribbean waters S of 18N and E of 83W. Strong trades and building seas are also expected to persist in Atlantic waters E of the Leeward and Windward Islands through Tue, with seas building to 12 or 13 ft E of the Leeward Island through Mon. Fresh to strong winds are forecast across the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba. Seas are forecast to build to 8 or 9 ft downwind of the Windward Passage and across the waters between eastern Cuba and Jamaica by Mon night into early Tue morning. These marine conditions are the result of a tight pressure gradient between a strong high pressure located NE of the area and the Colombian/Panamanian low. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A ridge dominates the SW N Atlantic with axis across the north weaters. Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong east winds S of 25N between 65W and 75W, and south of 23N between 75W and 77W, including also the approaches to the Windward Passage, where winds of 25-30 kt are noted. Seas of 8-10 ft are observed S of 27N and outside the Bahamas based on altimeter data. Fresh to strong winds are expected across the waters S of 25N through early morning, and then mainly S of 22N Mon through Wed as the ridge weakens, and a cold front clips the far N waters on Tue. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning early today. Gale Warning tonight into Mon night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night into Thu night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.