000 AGXX40 KNHC 041836 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 136 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Southerly return flow dominates much of the Gulf region ahead of a cold front currently entering the northern Gulf waters. An area of showers with embedded tstms is over the NE Gulf ahead of the front associated with a pre-frontal trough. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms. A recent ASCAT pass showed S to SW winds in the 20-25 kt range over the NE Gulf, particularly N of 26N E of 89W. The same scatterometer pass indicated a few wind barbs of 30-35 kt in the vicinity of the tstms. The front will stall from South Florida to South Texas by late Mon, then dissipate as it lifts northward Tue ahead of a another cold front moving into the northwest Gulf late Wed. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front mainly off the coast of Mexico as the front reaches a position from central Florida to the southwest Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Fresh to strong winds were sampled across the central Caribbean by a recent scatterometer pass. The same ASCAT pass showed similar wind speeds near the approaches to the Windward Passage on the Atlantic side. Although winds have diminished to 20 kt or less in the lee of Cuba and through the Windward Passage, winds are forecast to increase again to 20-25 kt on Mon night. Seas are expected to build to 8 ft in the Windward Passage by Tue night, and to 6-7 ft in the lee of Cuba by early Wed morning. Trades will continue to pulse to minimal gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia each night through Thu night. As high pressure builds N of area, the aerial extent and the strength of the trades are forecast to increase east of the Leeward and Windward Islands, accompanied by NE to E swell in excess of 8 ft by early Mon, and over most of the east and central Caribbean on Tue. Early on Wed, seas will build to 14 or 15 ft near the coast of Colombia with the strongest winds. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A dissipating stationary front extends front 28N65W to 27N75W. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are noted N of the front per scatterometer data, with seas of 8-12 ft according to a pair of altimeter passes and buoy observations. Fresh to strong southerly flow is setting up across the NW waters ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the NE Florida coast late tonight. The front will reach from 31N75W to 26N80W by early Mon morning. At that time, fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the front, but N of 30N. The front will extend from Bermuda to South Florida by early Tue before stalling then lifting north through mid week. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. Gale Warning Mon night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue night into Thu night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.