000 AGXX40 KNHC 281813 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 113 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Weak low pres is centered near Biloxi Mississippi. A cold front extends SW from the low to NE Mexico near 25N98W. The low will rapidly cross the NE Gulf today and head toward Cape Hatteras tonight. The low will drag the cold front eastward across the remainder of the Gulf waters by Mon afternoon. Gale force winds and building seas are expected behind the front near Veracruz, Mexico Mon afternoon and Mon night. The GFS model continues to be the most aggressive model with respect to this upcoming event but has traditionally handled the associated barrier jet along the Sierra Madre Oriental better than other models. The next cold front is not expected to enter the Gulf until Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Strong high pres NE of Bermuda will maintain fresh to strong trades across much of the basin through Mon. Strong to minimal gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia every night through Thu night, except Tue night, when a cold front entering the NW Caribbean will be temporarily weakening the ridge N of Colombia. Expect fresh to strong winds to the lee of Cuba and across the Windward Passage through late today, and across the tropical Atlc waters through late Mon. The next cold front will reach the NW Caribbean by Mon night, and extend from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Tue night. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Strong high pres located NE of Bermuda ridges SW over the forecast waters. A shear line extends from 19N65W to end near the Mona Passage. Strong to minimal gale force winds can be expected until around noon over the waters S of 21N, and fresh to strong winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish as the high moves farther E and weakens. A deepening surface low moving across Florida into the Atlc will drag a cold front across the NW waters tonight and Mon. The front will reach from near 31N73W SW across the NW Bahamas to the Straits of Florida on Mon night, then from 31N63W to eastern Cuba by sunrise on Wed. Strong NW winds and building seas will follow the front. Model consensus and ensemble forecasts keep the SW gales ahead of this front N of 32N as it heads E on Mon and Tue, but gales may be needed in the forecast N of 30N if the front trends stronger than forecast. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Mon into Mon night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. Gale Warning Mon night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed night into Fri night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.