000 AGXX40 KNHC 211901 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 201 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh S to SE winds will continue across the western Gulf through tonight ahead of a cold front moving SE off the Texas coast around sunrise on Mon. The cold front will extend from the Mississippi Delta to Veracruz Mexico late Mon, and then stall from SW Florida to near Veracruz Mexico on Tue night. A pre-frontal trough to the E of the front could serve as the focus for convection before the front clears the Gulf. Remnants of the front will lift N on Wed and Thu. Strong N winds are forecast along the Mexican coast from 21N to 25N W of 96W on Mon, then NW winds are forecast near Veracruz on Tue. Strong NE winds will develop across the NW Gulf waters on Wed evening in conjunction with a secondary surge of cold air and a high pres ridge building SW from the SE United States. These conditions will shift S across the central Gulf on Thu, then expand over the eastern half of the Gulf Thu night. A surface trough will form off the Veracruz coast of Mexico on Tue after the cold front passes. Individual and ensemble model solutions continue to suggest a minimal gale event will be possible Thu night as the cold air surge is funneled between the trough and the higher terrain just to the SW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Satellite-derived wind data from around 15Z this morning indicated minimal gales along the coast of Colombia has subsided to around 30 kt. Altimetry from around 11Z indicated seas of around 14 ft in this area as the gales were winding down. Strong to near gale force trades are still expected to pulse along the NW coast of Colombia through Thu night. Strong NE to E winds will spread N across the Central Caribbean waters today, then diminish some on Mon. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across the tropical Atlc waters E of the Windwards through Thu night with seas building to 8 ft on Sun on Mon. A cold front could make inroads into the NW Caribbean Thu night and Fri, but the big weather maker will be strong high pres moving E from the Mid Atlc States behind the front. The very tight pres gradient between the high and South America will cause winds and seas to exceed advisory levels over almost the entire basin by Sat evening. This area of winds and seas will merge with other areas of winds and seas forming in the NE Gulf of Mexico and the SW N Atlc. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A weakening quasi-stationary front extends from 21N65W to just N of the Dominican Republic near 20N71W. Locally strong NE winds will continue to pulse along the N coast of Hispaniola, and across the NE Atlc approach to the Windward Passage through Thu. Remnants of the front will drift NW across the Old Bahama Channel tonight and Mon as a NE to SW orientated trough, which should dissipate on Mon evening. Expect fresh to strong NE-E flow, and seas to 6 ft near this trough. A surface high currently SE of Bermuda near 30N62W will meander near this location through Mon, then shift N of Bermuda on Mon night to allow a cold front to move off the NE Florida coast on Tue morning. The cold front will reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida on Wed night and from 27N65W to Central Cuba on Thu night. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will support an expanding area of strong NE winds. This area of winds should include almost all of the forecast waters by Fri evening. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.