000 AGXX40 KNHC 201852 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 152 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A N to S orientated trough currently situated over the far NW Gulf from near Matagorda Bay Texas to La Pesca Tamaulipas will dissipate by Sun morning. A narrow belt of strong S to SE winds on the E side of the trough has diminished to fresh speeds as the trough begins to weaken. The pressure gradient over the western half of the Gulf will then tighten with fresh SE return flow setting up across the western Gulf tonight, ahead of a cold front moving SE off the Texas coast around dawn on Mon morning. The cold front will extend from the Mississippi Delta to Veracruz Mexico late Mon, then stall from SW Florida to the southern Bay of Campeche on Tue night. Remnants of the front will lift N on Wed. Strong NE winds develop across the northern Gulf waters on Thu in response to a surge of cold air pushing southward through the Gulf. The barrier jet along the Veracruz coast could be strong enough to support a minimal gale near Veracruz Thu night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A stationary front extending SW from E Cuba near 20N75W to 19N80W will gradually dissipate today and tonight. The pressure gradient N of the front will remain strong enough to maintain strong NE winds over the Caribbean approach to the Windward Passage and to the lee of Cuba today and tonight. Strong trades will pulse along the NW coast of Colombia through Wed night and will peak at minimal gale force tonight. The area of strong NE to E winds will continue slowly spreading N across the Central Caribbean waters today until Sun, then begin to diminish on Mon and Tue as a cold front stalling near Florida weakens the ridge to the N. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across the tropical Atlc waters E of the Windwards through Wed night with seas building to 8 ft on Sun on Mon, the falling back below 8 ft as the ridge weakens to the n and the trades weaken. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A cold front extends SW from 31N47W to 25N55W to 21N68W, then continues as a nearly stationary front to the eastern tip of Cuba. The stationary front is beginning to weaken but will linger from near 23N65W to E Cuba through Sun, then drift NW across the Old Bahama Channel on Sun night and Mon, as a NE to SW orientated trough, which should finally dissipate by Tue. Expect fresh to strong NE to E flow, and seas to 6 ft near this trough. Locally strong NE winds will continue to pulse over the Atlc approach to the Windward Passage through Wed, but winds will be slightly weaker on Mon and Tue as a cold front approaches Florida from the NW. A 1026 mb surface high currently near 30N73W will shift E along 30N today and tonight to reach a position S of Bermuda on Sun, where it will wander slowly through Mon, then shift N of Bermuda on Mon night allowing a cold front to move off the NE Florida coast around sunrise on Tue. The cold front will reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida late Wed night accompanied by only a moderate cyclonic wind shift. A reinforcing surge of cold air will arrive behind the front, followed by strong 1040 mb high pressure building E from the Carolinas. Model guidance suggests the high will support a large area of strong to near gale force winds over all but the SE portion of the forecast waters. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.