000 AGXX40 KNHC 161941 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 241 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pres ridges southwestward from the mid-Atlantic states to over the central and eastern gulf waters. A strong cold front moved off the Texas and SW Louisiana coasts early this morning a few hours sooner than expected , and as of 15Z extends from Mobile Bay southwestward to 28N94W and to just S of Brownsville. Latest and current buoy and oil platforms behind the front indicate strong to near gale force northerly winds behind the front, with seas of 6-9 ft with some pocket of 8-10 ft seas. The high elevation oil platforms are reporting gusts to gale force. An Ascat pass from 1642Z this morning revealed an extensive area of 30-35 kt N to NE winds behind the front, with the 35 kt winds along the coast of Texas. Buoy 42019 at 28N95W began to report N winds gusting to 35 kt near 18Z with waveheights up to 11 ft. E of the front, are light to moderate NE to E, except in the SE portion and Straits of Florida where a lingering tight gradient is allowing for strong NE winds over those waters. Seas E of the front as being reported by the buoys are 3 to 4 ft, except 5-8 ft in the SE part. Behind the front, area of rain with embedded scattered showers are noted behind the front in the very cold arctic air that follows the front. The high pres E of the front will shift eastward and weaken through tonight. The front will quickly reach from the Florida panhandle to near 26N91W and to just N of Tampico this evening, then move SE of the area early on Wed. Cold arctic offshore northerly flow behind the front will bring near gale force winds with frequent gusts to gale force over the NW Gulf today and tonight, and gale force NW to N winds near Tampico and Veracruz tonight through early on Wed. The strong high will gradually weaken as it shifts eastward through Sat. A coastal trough will set up along the Texas and Mexican coasts from Thu through Fri before moving inland the central Texas possibly as weak low late Fri. The next cold front may possibly be over eastern Texas, or just along the Texas coast late Sun night, however there are still model differences with timing of the front to approach the area. The expected arrival time of this front into the forecast waters is most likely to change in future forecasts until a model consensus is noted, if any. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... As of 18Z, a stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 21N77W to 18N80W to near 10N82W. Latest satellite imagery shows ample low-level clouds W of the front, with an area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from along the coast pf Nicaragua eastward to near 79W. Isolated showers are possible elsewhere W of the front. The front will weaken through tonight, with expected dissipation expected on Wed. Strong N winds along the coast of Nicaragua will slowly diminish to moderate this evening through Fri night. Otherwise, strong winds will pulse near the NW Colombia coast each night through Sun night. Large NE swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in the tropical Atlc waters until early Wed afternoon. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A strong 1042 mb high pres centered over the far NE Atlc near 40N32W will continue moving slowly E through Thu night. A stationary front extends from 31N67W to 26N72W to eastern Cuba near 21N77W as of 18Z. Strong N to NE winds W of the front S of 25N will diminish through Wed as the front weakens. A strong cold front will move off the SE United States coast on Wed, then weaken as it reaches from near 24N65W to the Windward Passage by Fri morning. Strong high pres in the wake of the front will bring strong N to NE winds and building seas NE of the Bahamas. These conditions will diminish Thu night through Fri night. The frontal remnants will move back to the W as a trough beginning on Fri, reaching the central Bahamas late Fri night and the central Bahamas Sat night through Sun night. Scattered showers may be possible with this trough. A small area of fresh NE winds is expected over the waters between the central and SE Bahamas and Cuba and also near the Windward Passage Fri and Fri night, then increase in coverage over the central Bahamas and nearby waters Sat through Sun night as the pres gradient between the trough and high pres ridging over the northern tightens up. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW Gulf including Stetson Bank Gale Warning for frequent gusts through tonight. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning tonight into Wed. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Wed and Wed night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.