000 AGXX40 KNHC 160713 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 213 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pres ridges SW over the region from the mid Atlantic states. A tight pres gradient over the far SE part of the gulf continues to maintain strong NE winds near the Straits of Florida. Seas associated with these winds are peaking around 9 ft. The high pres will move E through late Mon night as it weakens. Fresh to locally strong N winds will become moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the Gulf today through Tue night. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf this afternoon, reach from the Florida panhandle SW to near 26N91W and to near Tampico by early Tue evening before dissipating and reforming to the SE of the area early Wed. Model guidance and ensemble forecasts continue to indicate that the northerly flow behind the front will be driven by very strong high pres of about 1044 mb heading SE from the southern plains region to eastern Oklahoma by early Wed. Model forecast consensus supports continuity with the previous forecast in forecasting gale force N winds for the far W central waters along the coast of Tampico and Veracruz Tue night and Wed. The offshore N winds behind the front are expected to be near gale force with frequent gusts to gale force over the NW Gulf waters W of 91W within 60 nm of the coast on Tue and Tue night. Seas within 60 nm of the coast will range between 9 and 11 ft but may at times be a little higher. The gale force winds near Tampico are expected to last until late morning on Wed, while gales near Veracruz could continue until Wed evening. Seas in the SW Gulf are expected to build to 10 to 14 ft in the gale force winds, then slowly subside through Thu. High pres building in behind the front will increase the pres gradient over the SE Gulf and cause the present area of strong NE winds to increase in areal coverage through early on Thu with seas of 8-10 ft. These winds and seas will funnel southward S through the Yucatan Channel as well and diminish Thu afternoon into Fri. The high pres behind this front will shift E through Fri and weaken. Commonly when high pres retreats E across the gulf, a coastal trough will set up along the southern Texas as well as the Tamaulipas and Veracruz coasts of Mexico on Thu. The model guidance shows the trough lifting N towards the central Texas coast moving inland late Fri night or early on Sat, with the possibility of weak low pres forming within the trough as it lifts N. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A stationary front currently extends from eastern Cuba near 20N77W to 14N80W to 09N82W. The front will weaken today and tonight through Tue. The remnants of the front will become a trough by early Wed. Strong winds that are still occurring within 60 nm of the coast of Nicaragua as shown by recent satellite- derived wind data at 0230Z. Winds will diminish to moderate speeds and seas in this area will subside below 8 ft as the front weakens. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are still occurring within 30 nm of the front E of Nicaragua This activity will taper off as the front loses identity. Otherwise, strong winds will pulse near the NW Colombia coast each night through the period. Large NE swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in the tropical Atlc waters through early Tue evening. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Strong 1043 mb high pres centered over the central Atlc near 41N35W will continue moving slowly E through Thu night. A cold front extends from near 31N70W to 27N73W, then continues as a stationary front to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Strong N to NE winds W of the front and S of 28N will gradually diminish through this afternoon. Seas between the front and the Bahamas are in the 8 to 12 ft range, and are expected to slowly subside as the front weakens and fall below 8 ft by Wed evening. A strong cold front will move off the SE United States coast on Wed, then weaken as it reaches from near 27N65W to the SE Bahamas by Thu evening. The remains of the front in the form of a trough will move W across the far SE waters Fri through Sat. Strong high pres in the wake of the front will bring strong N to NE winds and building seas NE of the Bahamas. These conditions will diminish late Thu night through Fri. A small area of fresh NE winds is expected over the waters between the central and SE Bahamas and Cuba and also near the Windward Passage Fri through Sat. Expect hazardous seas over the Gulf Stream waters between the Bahamas and S Florida this morning, with accompanying seas of 8 to 10 ft. Winds and seas will fall below advisory levels by Wed morning. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning tonight into Wed. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Wed. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.