000 AGXX40 KNHC 151959 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 259 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pres is well established over the region. A tight pres gradient over the SE part of the gulf continues to maintain strong N-NE winds across that portion of the gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Seas with these winds are peaking up to 9 ft. The high pres will move eastward through late Mon night as it weakens. Fresh to locally strong N winds will become moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the Gulf today through Tue night. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf Tue afternoon, reach from the Florida panhandle SW to near 26N91W and to near Tampico by early Tue evening before moving to just SE of the area early on Wed. Model guidance and ensemble forecasts continue to indicate that the northerly flow behind the front will be driven by very strong high pres of about 1044 mb that drops southeastward from the southern plains region to eastern Oklahoma by early Wed. Based on latest model trends on depicting this synoptic set of very strong high pres in the wake of the aforementioned cold front will maintain continuity with previous forecast in forecasting gale force northerly winds for the far W central waters along the coast of Tampico and Veracruz Tue night and Wed. The offshore northerly winds behind the front are expected to be near gale force with frequent gusts to gale force over the NW Gulf waters on Tue and Tue night, with seas in the range of 9 to 11 ft but may at times be a little higher. The gale force winds near Tampico are expected to last until late morning on Wed, while the ones near Veracruz are expected until early Wed evening, but could possibly be extended a little longer as what sometimes happens. Seas in the SW Gulf are expected to build to 10 to 14 ft with the gale force winds, then slowly subside through Thu. High pres building in behind the front will increase the pres gradient across the SE Gulf allowing for the present area of strong N-NE winds to increase in coverage through early on Thu with seas of 8-10 ft. These winds and seas will funnel southward S through the Yucatan Channel as well and diminish from Thu afternoon into Fri. The high pres behind this front will shift eastward through Fri and weaken. As what typically occurs when high pres retreats eastward across the gulf, a coastal trough will tend set up along the southern Texas and northeastern Mexican coast on Thu. The model guidance shows this feature lifting northward towards central Texas coast moving inland late Fri night or early on Sat, with the possibility of weak low pres forming along it. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A stationary front currently extending from eastern Cuba near 21N77W to 15N81W to 09N82W. The front will begin to weaken tonight, and continue weakening through Tue, with its remnants becoming a trough by early Wed. The gale force winds that were earlier occurring within 60 nm of the coast of Nicaragua persisted into this morning, but have since diminished to strong N winds as partial Ascat data from this morning indicated. These winds will be diminishing further through Tue, with leftover decaying NE swell producing seas up to 8 ft from 17N to 20N between 83W and 86W at that time. Of interest, scattered showers and thunderstorms are quite active over much of the central Caribbean from 13N to 17N between 75W and 82W, while scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are S of 13N between 80W and 82W. This activity contains cloud to water lightning strikes and gusty winds, and should continue into early Wed morning. Otherwise, strong winds will pulse near the NW Colombia coast each night through the period. Large NE swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in the tropical Atlc waters through early Tue evening. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Strong 1043 mb high pres centered over the central Atlc near 40N39W will move eastward through Wed night. A cold front extends from near 31N72W to 26N73W, then becomes a stationary front to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Strong N to NE winds W of the front will gradually diminish through Tue. Seas between the front and the Bahamas are in the 8 to 12 ft range, and are expected to linger through early on Tue before they begin to slowly subside. A strong cold front will move off the SE United States coast on Wed, and weaken as it reaches from near 27N65W to the SE Bahamas by Thu evening. The remnant trough will move W across the far SE waters Fri through Sat. Strong high pres in the wake of the front will bring strong N to NE winds and building seas NE of the Bahamas. These conditions will diminish late Thu night through Fri. A small area of fresh NE winds is expected over the waters between the central and SE Bahamas and Cuba and also near the Windward Passage Fri through Sat. Expect hazardous seas over the Gulf Stream waters between the Bahamas and S Florida through Tue morning, with accompanying seas of 8 to 10 ft. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW Gulf including Stetson Bank- Gale Warning from frequent gusts Tue and Tue night. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Tue night. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.